Price trend
According to the commodity price analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic toluene market fluctuated upwards in January 2026, reversing the weak trend of December and achieving an increase. Cost support and pre-holiday inventory replenishment were the core driving factors. Towards the end of the month, the increase narrowed due to insufficient demand. From January 1st to 29th, the domestic toluene market price rose from 5,170 RMB/ton to 5,450 RMB/ton, a cumulative increase of 5.42% during the period, with the overall price range significantly higher than the previous month.
Early to mid-month: The domestic toluene market entered a volatile upward trend. Shandong, as a core production area, saw leading refineries raise their prices first, driven by the continuous recovery of crude oil prices. By mid-month, the mainstream price range in the region rose to 5,300-5,350 RMB/ton, an increase of over 150 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month. The East China and South China regions followed suit, with refineries under Sinopec also raising their prices. Market trading activity gradually became more active, and the negotiation focus steadily moved upward, with prices briefly reaching a monthly high of 5,480 RMB/ton.
Late in the month: The market entered a high-level volatile trend. Although prices in East and South China remained high, purchasing intentions declined after the end of the short-term inventory replenishment by end-users. The market was primarily driven by essential demand. While refineries were keen to maintain high prices, the pace of sales slowed down. Some regions offered slight discounts to boost sales, leading to a small price correction before stabilizing. Overall, the market maintained a high-level volatile trend, with the price closing at 5,450 RMB/ton at the end of the month.
Market analysis
Cost Side:
This month's market trend showed distinct phases, with an initial surge followed by a pullback after encountering resistance, but overall prices remained at high levels. At the beginning of the month, supported by tight supply, rising international prices, and expectations of pre-holiday stocking by downstream industries, the market experienced a strong upward trend. Companies showed a strong willingness to maintain high prices, and quotations were repeatedly raised, leading to a rapid price surge. In the middle of the month, driven by the strong performance of downstream synthetic rubber futures and a heated spot market trading atmosphere, prices continued to reach new highs, with tight spot resources and scarce low-priced goods. Towards the end of the month, as prices rose sharply, downstream raw material cost pressure increased significantly, profits remained under pressure, and the enthusiasm for market purchases declined noticeably. High-priced transactions encountered resistance, and the market experienced a temporary pullback. However, due to the lack of significant easing in supply, the pullback was limited, and overall prices remained at high levels, resulting in a substantial price increase during the month. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract was $63.21 per barrel. The settlement price of the April Brent crude oil futures contract was $67.37 per barrel.
Demand side:
According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, as of January 29th, Sinopec Sales Company's p-xylene price remained stable, with the price at 7,300 RMB/ton. This price was uniformly applied across the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Major production facilities such as those of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, and product sales are normal. Furthermore, the price had increased by 300 RMB/ton compared to December 30th.
In the international market: As of January 28th, the closing price of paraxylene (PX) in the Asian market was US$898-900/ton FOB South Korea and US$923-925/ton CFR China, an increase of US$31/ton compared to the end of last month. The strengthening PX market boosted the overall sentiment in the domestic aromatics sector. The PX futures contract on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange also rose, with the 2603 contract closing at 7,392 RMB/ton, an increase of 184 RMB/ton compared to the end of last month, providing positive momentum for the toluene market.
Domestic demand in the oil blending and chemical industries showed a pattern of initial strength followed by weakness this month. In the first ten days, influenced by the approaching Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries such as coatings, dyes, and pharmaceutical intermediates began pre-holiday inventory replenishment, leading to a marginal increase in procurement volume and becoming a significant driving force behind price increases. However, after the completion of this temporary inventory replenishment in the middle and latter parts of the month, downstream industries reverted to a needs-based procurement strategy, and no further concentrated inventory replenishment occurred. The oil blending sector maintained just-in-time procurement, limiting its further impact on prices. Towards the end of the month, market trading activity weakened, which was the main reason for the slight price correction. Overall, although there was no significant increase in demand this month, the temporary support provided by pre-holiday inventory replenishment still provided strong support for the rise in toluene prices.
Market outlook
As of January 30, the domestic toluene market was influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors: on the one hand, international crude oil prices remained volatile at high levels, providing continued cost support, and the Asian PX market continued to strengthen, creating a generally positive atmosphere in the aromatics sector. Furthermore, toluene supply in the Shandong region remained tight, with limited availability, supporting toluene prices. On the other hand, with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries were gradually entering a shutdown and inventory-building phase, and terminal demand was entering a slack season. The pace of resumption of work and production after the holiday was still uncertain, and the market lacked sustained demand growth. After the end-of-month inventory replenishment, the market was primarily driven by essential demand, and market participants were cautious about chasing higher prices.
Overall, the toluene market is expected to maintain a high-level fluctuating trend in the short term. Before the Spring Festival, prices are unlikely to see a significant correction due to cost support and tight supply. After the holiday, key factors to watch include crude oil price trends, the progress of downstream industries resuming production, and the performance of the PX market, as these will be the core variables driving the market's future direction.
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