Price trend:

According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the toluene market fluctuated and declined slightly from December 1st to December 15th, 2025. On December 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5,330 RMB/ton, and on December 15th, it was 5,250 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.5%. During this period, the domestic toluene market experienced fluctuating declines. Supply remained relatively stable with little change, while demand continued to be driven by replenishment needs. Demand from the oil blending and chemical industries remained stable. The aromatics market weakened recently, putting pressure on the spot market, which experienced narrow fluctuations and a downward trend. Spot prices in the Shandong region showed a slight decline at the end of last week, and the market sentiment was generally weak.

Market Analysis

Cost side:

According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs, as of December 12th, the settlement price of the January contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $57.44 per barrel. The settlement price of the February contract for Brent crude oil futures was $61.12 per barrel. During this period, crude oil prices initially fell before rising. At the beginning of the period, regional tensions eased, and coupled with weakening US demand and the impact of US tariffs on global economic and demand expectations, international oil prices were low. Later, OPEC+ oil-producing countries temporarily suspended production increases, and the prospects for a peace agreement in the region became uncertain, leading to an increase in crude oil prices due to geopolitical factors.

Supply Side:

Sinopec's toluene plants were operating normally, with stable production. Most of the product was for internal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of December 12th, the quoted prices were 5,250 RMB/ton for East China, 5,150-5,200 RMB/ton for North China, 5,300-5,400 RMB/ton for South China, and 5,250 RMB/ton for Central China.

Demand Side:

On December 15th, Sinopec Sales Company maintained a stable price for p-xylene, temporarily at 7,200 RMB/ton. This price was applicable in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical, and other facilities were operating stably, with normal sales. As of December 12th, the closing price for p-xylene in the Asian market was $805-807/ton FOB Korea and $830-832/ton CFR China.

Market Outlook:

Overall, the supply-side pressure in the toluene market was manageable, but spot prices in the Shandong region experienced a slight fluctuation and decline last weekend. Coupled with the lack of substantial positive factors to boost the market during the day, the trading atmosphere became more cautious. In summary, toluene and xylene prices are likely to face downward pressure in the short term, but their downside potential is expected to be limited due to support from the cost side.

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