Price trend

According to the commodity price analysis system of SunSirs, the toluene market trended upward from January 1st to January 15th, 2026. The benchmark price of toluene was 5,170 RMB/ton on January 1st and 5,310 RMB/ton on January 15th, an increase of 2.71%. The main driving forces behind this upward trend were the support from crude oil costs, tightening supply, and positive effects within the aromatic hydrocarbon industry chain. However, due to wide fluctuations in crude oil prices, cautious downstream buying, and divergent regional supply expectations, the market lacked momentum for further increases, and pressure to maintain stability at high levels gradually emerged.

Market analysis

Cost side:

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, as of January 15th, the settlement price of the March contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $59.08/barrel, and the settlement price of the March contract for Brent crude oil futures was $63.76/barrel. During this period, international crude oil prices showed a wide range of fluctuations, with a continuous rise followed by a significant correction at the end of the month, resulting in varying levels of cost support for the toluene market. In the early part of the period, international crude oil futures experienced five consecutive days of increases, with WTI crude oil rising above $60/barrel and Brent crude oil also increasing, both reaching their highest levels in nearly two months. This created a strong atmosphere in the commodity market, directly driving up the prices of toluene and its upstream and downstream aromatic products.Domestic crude oil futures also strengthened concurrently, rising continuously from January 9th to January 13th, with the closing price reaching 445.6 RMB/barrel on January 13th, an increase of 29.4 RMB/barrel from the low point on January 8th, indicating significant support from the cost side. However, international oil prices experienced a sharp decline on January 15th, with geopolitical premiums quickly dissipating. Influenced by factors such as the easing of relations between Venezuela and the United States, a larger-than-expected increase in US crude oil inventories, and a decline in the OPEC+ production cut compliance rate, WTI crude oil fell by 3.31% in a single day, closing at $59.83/barrel; Brent crude oil fell by 3.49%, closing at $64.19/barrel, marking the largest single-day drop since November 2025. The sharp short-term correction in oil prices weakened the cost support for toluene, and coupled with increased market expectations of further oil price volatility, the upward momentum in the toluene market was suppressed, lacking sufficient impetus for continued growth.

Supply side:

During this period, domestic toluene supply was generally tight, with significant regional variations due to differences in plant operations and arrival schedules, becoming the core support for price increases. The supply-demand balance remained tight in Shandong, providing the strongest upward price pressure. The restart of Xin Yue Chemical's plant was delayed, You Tai Technology underwent maintenance shutdowns, Hua Xing Petrochemical primarily used its toluene internally, and Yu Long Petrochemical's regional circulation decreased, leading to a continuous contraction in supply. Refinery auctions saw consistent premiums, and prices were actively pushed higher, surpassing the 5000 RMB/ton mark, with active trading. In Jiangsu, declining ship arrivals at storage facilities led to tight spot supply. Coupled with the positive impact of rising crude oil and aromatics prices, holders actively supported prices, paper trading was frequent, and the opening of export arbitrage opportunities further strengthened the reluctance to sell, causing prices to follow Shandong's upward trend. Guangdong showed a "tight first, then loose" trend; delayed ship arrivals initially boosted inventory reduction and price increases, but subsequent arrivals put pressure on prices. In addition, domestic major refineries maintained stable operating rates but used more of their production internally.

Sinopec's toluene plants were operating normally, with stable production. Most of the product was for internal use, and sales and production were stable. As of December 12th, the quoted price for East China was 5,400 RMB/ton, North China 5,200 RMB/ton, South China 5,500 RMB/ton, and Central China 5,250 RMB/ton.

Demand side

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, Sinopec Sales Company's PX price was uniformly set at 9,300 RMB/ton in East China, North China, and South China. Major producers such as Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical were operating stably, with smooth production and sales. As of January 15th, the closing price of the Asian PX market was US$980-982/ton FOB Korea and US$1,005-1,007/ton CFR China, representing increases of 2.17% and 2.33% respectively compared to January 1st. The upward trend in both domestic and international prices was significant.

Market Outlook:

Wide fluctuations in crude oil prices and cautious downstream buying sentiment will lead to a lack of momentum for further increases in the toluene market, and bearish sentiment is expected to increase. Regional differentiation will further widen: supply remains tight in Shandong province, providing some support; Jiangsu province benefits from export arbitrage opportunities, leading to strong price-holding intentions among traders; and Guangdong province is experiencing significant price pressure due to the arrival of new shipments. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range next week, with key factors to watch including crude oil price trends, the progress of plant maintenance in Shandong, and the arrival of shipments in Guangdong.

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