2025 marks the first year of Trump's Critical Minerals 2.0 strategy. Faced with the supply chain dilemma where 12 critical minerals are 100% dependent on imports and 29 have an import dependency exceeding 50%, Trump, who comes from a real estate background, continued the "America First" slogan from his first term after starting his second term, simplifying the complex critical minerals supply into "transactions" and "control". Domestically, from governing by executive orders to the government directly taking stakes in core enterprises, there has been a comprehensive and systematic strengthening of in-depth state intervention. Internationally, coercive transactions are conducted under the pretext of "peace" and "security" to build an autonomous and geographically exclusive critical minerals supply chain, and the "Don-Ro Doctrine" to control the Western Hemisphere has been introduced, pushing the global critical minerals supply towards an uncertain future.
1. Activate the emergency authorization under the Defense Production Act.
On January 20, 2025, on his first day in office as President, Trump signed the "National Energy Emergency" executive order, elevating the security of critical minerals to a "national energy emergency" status. The goal is to achieve that by 2030, the proportion of supply of 25 core critical minerals from domestic or allied sources reaches ≥90%, significantly reducing dependence on China, which is the main import source for 18 kinds of critical minerals. The U.S. government quickly approved 20 projects within January, requiring federal agencies to activate emergency procedures to shorten the environmental assessment and licensing cycles. The quickly approved projects include lithium, copper, rare earths, uranium/vanadium, antimony/gold, zinc/manganese, titanium, potassium, and 10 other critical mineral projects, covering palladium, silver, nickel, etc.
2. Establish an inter-departmental coordination hub for the government.
On February 14, 2025, Trump signed the executive order "Establishing the National Interagency Energy Dominance Committee (NEDC)", which explicitly includes critical minerals in the scope of energy dominance and strengthens the coordination of federal land and resource development. This executive order is linked to the "National Energy Emergency Order" issued on January 20. Aiming at issues such as the high dependence of the United States on imports for critical minerals and the lag in the approval of energy infrastructure, it establishes the interagency coordination hub NEDC. This agency is affiliated to the Executive Office of the President, and its core mission is to coordinate the mining, production, transportation, approval and supervision of energy and critical minerals in a "whole-of-government" model, formulate a national energy dominance strategy, eliminate approval barriers, and leverage private sector investment. Interagency coordination reduces internal friction in approval processes.
3. Comprehensively accelerate the production of domestic critical minerals.
On March 20, 2025, Trump signed the executive order "Taking Immediate Measures to Increase U.S. Mineral Production". Invoking the Defense Production Act (DPA), he exercised emergency powers to comprehensively accelerate the full-chain development of critical minerals. This initiative is coordinated and implemented by NEDC, which designates mineral production as a priority use of federal lands. The approval cycle for mining projects has been shortened from 3 years to 6 months, and the number of priority projects has been expanded from 20 to more than 50. Subsequently, relevant departments completed the sorting of the first batch of critical mineral priority project lists, coordinated with the Department of the Interior to lift mineral development bans in regions such as Nevada and New Mexico, released the production capacity of federal lands, and initiated the formulation of the draft "National Energy Dominance Strategy". The approval acceleration mechanism of the January emergency order has been expanded to cover the entire industrial chain, with two new core tools: "DPA financing" and "priority development of federal lands".
On April 8, 2025, Trump signed the executive order "Revitalizing America's Beautiful and Clean Coal Industry". Relying on DPA and NEDC to unblock channels for funds, approvals and land, it provides support for power supply of AI data centers, coal for steel metallurgy and exports. Relying on DPA Title III to obtain special financing, it is expected that U.S. coal production will increase by 15%-20% from 2025 to 2027, creating about 50,000-80,000 new jobs, driving the energy economy in the Midwest, ensuring the stable supply of metallurgical coal, and providing impetus for the steel industry; the electricity cost of AI data centers will be reduced by about 20%-30%, supporting the expansion of the digital economy; and filling the gap of coal in the key mineral system, forming a full-chain energy and mineral security network together with lithium, rare earths, etc.
Equity binding activates the vitality of manufacturing enterprises and capital markets
1. Revising laws to open the floodgates of funds for government equity participation.
The Trump administration, through legal amendments, has opened a hundreds-of-billions-of-yuan funding floodgate for national intervention in key mineral, energy and other sectors. The core is to link national security with industrial strategy, and implement operations through the Department of Defense's Strategic Capital Office and the Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office, unblocking diversified funding channels such as financing, appropriations, equity, and credit. By activating the Defense Production Act, it has incorporated the production capacity of critical minerals into the scope of national security; through the "Outstanding Bipartisan Betterment Act" (OBBA), it has allocated US$7.5 billion for critical minerals (US$2 billion for expanding reserves, US$5 billion for investing in supply chains, and US$500 million for credit); it has adjusted the use of funds under the CHIPS and Science Act, with at least US$2 billion of chip subsidy funds converted into equity investments in critical mineral projects such as rare earths and lithium; and it has revised the tax rules of the Inflation Reduction Act to add tax incentives for equity investment projects in critical minerals, tilting towards domestic critical mineral projects.
2. Government shareholding strengthens control over core production enterprises.
The Trump administration has established an operational framework of "equity intervention + right attachment + industrial chain binding" through forms such as preferred shares, warrants, debt-to-equity swaps, golden shares, and grants for equity. Over the past year, the Trump administration has invested more than $1 billion to acquire shares in mining companies. The transactions include the U.S. Department of Defense's $400 million acquisition of a 15% stake in MP Materials (providing a $150 million loan, signing a 10-year floor price procurement agreement, and requiring an improvement in heavy rare earth separation capacity), a $670 million acquisition of shares in magnet manufacturer Vulcan Elements, and a $35.6 million acquisition of shares in Canada's Trilogy Metals Inc. along with additional warrants. The U.S. Department of Energy has negotiated to convert a $2.26 billion loan for the Thacker Pass lithium mine project of Lithium Americas into a 5%-10% stake in the company, becoming its potential largest shareholder. The first phase of the project can replace 80% of U.S. lithium imports and is scheduled to start production in 2026.
On November 6, 2025, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) released the "2025 Final List of Critical Minerals". The total number of mineral species increased from 50 in 2022 to 60, with 10 new minerals added, including copper, silver, uranium, boron, lead, metallurgical coal, phosphate, potash, rhenium, and silicon. This is the most significant adjustment since the list was established in 2018. In accordance with the requirements of the U.S. Energy Act of 2020, the list must be reviewed and updated at least every 3 years. Minerals included in the list will receive federal funding support, and exploration, mining, and refining projects will enjoy a green channel for approval to promote the expansion of domestic production capacity; they may be included in the scope of Section 232 investigations, affecting tariffs and import controls; attract mining investment, force allies to strengthen mineral cooperation, and reduce dependence on specific regions. The 2025 list forms a coverage pattern of "industrial foundation + energy security + agricultural guarantee", and uses a scientific risk assessment model to accurately identify weak links in the supply chain, providing clear guidance for policy implementation.
4. Equity investment activates the market and drives private capital to follow suit.
Government participation as a shareholder has played the role of a "confidence anchor". Stimulated by the news of the shareholding, the stock price of Lithium Americas surged 98.7% after hours, and the stock price of Trilogy Metals soared by more than 250%. This market reaction attracted private capital to follow suit, alleviating the dilemma of capital outflow in mining investment. The resonance between over hundreds of billions of dollars in policy funds and the enthusiasm of the capital market has led to an average increase of over 241% in the stock prices of U.S. rare earth miners since 2025, with some companies' stock prices rising by 5 times, providing sufficient financial support for capacity expansion. In the process of the U.S. Department of Defense's equity acquisition and financing of MP, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs followed with a $1 billion investment. JPMorgan Chase issued a statement in October 2025, committing to invest $1.5 trillion over 10 years in 27 sub-sectors including mining, refining, solar and nuclear energy, battery storage, and military supplies.
1. Protect domestic critical mineral enterprises through vertical integration.
The Trump administration has built a full-chain closed-loop layout, which not only controls core mineral resources through equity investment, but also requires terminal manufacturing enterprises to provide procurement guarantees, forming a vertically integrated industrial ecology. In February 2023, General Motors (GM) announced that it would invest 650 million US dollars in Lithium Americas. In October 2024, it adjusted to 625 million US dollars to obtain a 38% stake in Lithium Americas' flagship project, the Thacker Pass hard rock lithium mine. Through a combination strategy of "equity binding + long-term exclusive sales + technical collaboration + supply chain localization", it has focused on the Thacker Pass hard rock lithium mine and linked the lithium extraction from salt lakes and brine projects in South America, forming a full-chain lock covering "mining - refining - exclusive sales" to support the demand for more than 1 million electric vehicles per year. At the same time, the U.S. government has also extended its equity participation to the downstream manufacturing sector, taking stakes in companies such as Intel and binding them for supply chain collaboration.
2. Counter the cost advantages of Chinese-funded enterprises with a price floor policy.
To address the issue of high domestic production costs in the United States, Trump introduced a critical mineral price floor policy. Centered on the U.S. Section 232 investigation and combined with the Inflation Reduction Act, the Defense Production Act, etc., it authorizes the government to set price floors through tools such as negotiations, procurement agreements, and tariffs, and to enforce them when necessary. The policy aims to solve the problems of insufficient investment in domestic production capacity and fragile supply chains caused by "non-market pricing" and to prevent the risk of supply disruptions. The policy covers 60 minerals on the 2025 Critical Minerals List, with priority given to varieties with fragile supply chains and high import dependence, such as rare earths, lithium, cobalt, gallium, and germanium. In July 2025, the 10-year agreement reached between the U.S. Department of Defense and MP Materials stipulated that the minimum price of NdPr oxide is $110 per kilogram, which is double the current Chinese market price (about $60 per kilogram).
3. Using Section 232 to build import tariff barriers for critical minerals.
Trump signed an executive order on April 15, 2025, requiring the U.S. Secretary of Commerce to launch a national security review of imports of processed critical minerals and their derivatives in accordance with Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The core is to assess the threat posed by import dependence to U.S. national defense and supply chain resilience, replacing the previously announced "reciprocal tariffs" with "Section 232 tariffs". The scope includes 50 critical minerals listed by the USGS (lithium, cobalt, nickel, rare earths, etc.), 17 rare earth elements, uranium, as well as their processed forms and derivatives. It requires the submission of an interim report within 90 days to assess and identify high-risk source countries, as well as risks such as supply disruptions and price fluctuations, study the feasibility and effectiveness of measures such as tariffs, quotas, investment reviews, subsidies for domestic production capacity, and strategic reserves, and analyze the impact of "unfair competition" and "economic coercion" on U.S. industries.
The United States' structural dependence on China for rare earth separation technology (with a 98% reliance) and lithium processing capacity (with a 75% reliance) constitutes a shortage in its national security strategy. In 2025, the United States launched the "Future Mine Plan", which plans to take the Department of Energy as the leading unit and build a full-chain support system of "technology research and development - test verification - commercial implementation" through a special fund of 815 million US dollars. In September, the U.S. Department of Energy officially launched 80 million U.S. dollars in test site funding and 15 million U.S. dollars in laboratory research and development funds, marking the strategic transformation of the United States from "strategic reserve" to "technological breakthrough": at the supply security level, it will increase the autonomy rate of critical minerals from 38% to 65% through the upgrading of domestic production capacity; at the technological hegemony level, it will seize the standard-setting power in fields such as intelligent mining and deep-sea development; at the rule-dominant level, it will build a "U.S. standard" mineral trade and development system to hedge against China's industrial chain advantages.
5. Promote and expand the national strategic reserves of critical minerals.
The core of expanding the National Strategic Reserves (NMSR) of critical minerals lies in relying on laws such as the "Big and Beautiful Act" and the "Defense Production Act", supported by a special budget of 2 billion US dollars, focusing on 38 highly dependent minerals including rare earths, lithium, cobalt, gallium, and germanium, to build a three-dimensional reserve system of "physical reserves, production capacity, and allied joint reserves". The goal is to increase the reserve period of core varieties to more than 180 days by 2027. As of January 2026, in terms of funds, the first batch of 1 billion US dollars in procurement funds from the U.S. Department of Defense has been in place, focusing on strategic varieties such as cobalt, rare earths, antimony, and tantalum; in terms of facilities, the Nevada Strategic Reserve (SMR) is under accelerated construction for the centralized storage of rare earths, lithium and other minerals; in terms of coordination, the United States and Australia have signed an 8.5 billion US dollar agreement, which includes a rare earth price floor and joint reserve clauses, promoting G7 allies to jointly build a supply network; in terms of legislation, the "2026 Securing Critical American Resources and Elemental Minerals Act" proposes to set up a 2.5 billion US dollar "Strategic Resilience Reserve (SRR)", establishing a physical storage and regulatory committee similar to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
1. Reshape the U.S.-centered division of labor system with "peace" and "security".
On April 30, 2025, the Trump administration promoted and pressured Ukraine to sign an agreement under the pretext of "peace", locking in the development rights of 57 categories of critical minerals in Ukraine under the name of "peace and reconstruction". On October 26, the United States threatened with tariffs to sign trade and critical minerals agreements with four Southeast Asian countries: Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam. Regarding the relevant "peace for minerals" agreement in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), the United States led mediation aimed at ending the 30-year conflict in eastern DRC (North Kivu, South Kivu), binding mineral development cooperation clauses. According to the framework agreement, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) cooperated with Gécamines, the state-owned mining company of the DRC, and U.S. enterprises obtained priority investment and procurement rights for critical minerals such as cobalt, copper and lithium in the DRC, with supporting infrastructure investment bound to resource development.
2. Establish a "Critical Minerals Trading Club".
In August 2025, the United States, together with 10 countries including the United Kingdom, Canada, and Australia, established the "Mineral Security Partnership Financing Network", with assets under management exceeding 30 trillion US dollars. At the end of October, the "Critical Minerals Trading Club" started to be formed, absorbing countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia, and plans to complete the "de-Chinaization" layout of the core supply chain by July 2026. Led by the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the Department of the Interior, and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, the financing network manages assets exceeding 30 trillion US dollars, providing special loans and equity support for projects. Member countries open new mining rights to U.S. companies, which can obtain 70% of the output of some projects before recovering their investments, and the income is calculated according to the "investment ratio + output sharing". The U.S. side provides exploration and smelting technologies and promotes "club standards", aiming to replace China's technological leadership in the processing link. In January 2026, Trump signed an executive order requiring allies to reach a "de-Chinaization" agreement by July 2026, otherwise tariffs or quota restrictions will be imposed.
3. Unilaterally accelerating the development of deep-sea minerals.
On April 24, 2025, Trump signed the executive order "Unleashing America's Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources," bypassing international maritime organizations to unilaterally accelerate the exploration, extraction, and processing of deep-sea minerals (nickel, cobalt, copper, manganese, rare earths, etc.) in the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) and the Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction (ABNJ). This aims to build an offshore mineral supply chain and strengthen U.S. leadership in deep-sea mining technology and international rules. Led by the National Interagency Energy Dominance Council (NEDC), it will coordinate with the Department of the Interior, Department of Commerce, Department of Energy, Department of Defense, Department of State, and other agencies to regularly report progress to the President. Priority will be given to advancing projects such as the polymetallic nodule project in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) of the Pacific Ocean and the cobalt-rich crust project in the offshore areas of Alaska to ensure implementation efficiency.
On December 4, 2025, the Trump administration officially released the National Security Strategy (NSS) for its second term, explicitly listing the Western Hemisphere (South America and North America) as the highest priority in the United States' global strategy, and emphasizing the use of military and strategic forces to ensure America's absolute influence in the Western Hemisphere. The core of this strategy is to shift the security of critical minerals and energy from "offshore balancing" to direct control of the Western Hemisphere, so as to achieve the goals of supply chain autonomy and geopolitical exclusivity. The government is fully promoting nearshore production and carrying out smelting and processing within the framework of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to comply with the subsidy requirement in the Inflation Reduction Act that "critical minerals originate from North America" (which needs to reach 80% by 2027). At the same time, it aims to form a closed loop of "mining in the Western Hemisphere - nearshore processing - U.S. consumption" to reduce dependence on extra-regional areas such as Australia, Guinea, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and explicitly exclude the participation rights of major extra-regional powers such as China and Russia.
After Trump began his second term in 2025, in order to quickly enhance the security level of the supply of critical minerals in the United States, he launched the "CEO governance model" domestically and promoted the radical "Trump Doctrine" globally. Although on the surface, Trump's Critical Minerals 2.0 strategy aims directly at the industrial weaknesses of the United States, the strained national finances, the collapsing alliance relations, the problematic land rights system, and the intense partisan struggles will eventually make this strategy a gorgeous "Emperor's New Clothes".
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