On January 29, precious metal prices experienced a "roller-coaster" ride, surging to a high, then plummeting sharply, and subsequently rebounding. The spot price of London gold hit a record high of $5,598.75 per ounce, but during the night session, it once plunged 5.9% to a low of $5,097.36 per ounce. The spot price of London silver once dropped 8.4% to a low of $106.76 per ounce. As of the early session on January 30, the decline in the spot price of London gold narrowed to 0.4%, standing at $5,393.21 per ounce; COMEX gold futures rose 1.47% to $5,418.4 per ounce. The spot price of London silver closed down 0.21% at $116.3 per ounce; COMEX silver futures prices rose 2.02% to $115.83 per ounce. Market participants believe that the long-term upward trend of precious metal prices remains unchanged, and there is still room for growth in the medium term, but short-term correction risks need to be vigilant.
Since the beginning of 2026, the prices of gold and silver have started a strong upward trend. The spot price of London gold has successfully broken through the key psychological barrier of $5,500 per ounce, with an increase of nearly 28% in just one month. The spot price of London silver has even reached a high of $120 per ounce, with an increase of more than 50%.
The fundamental reason for the sharp rise in precious metal prices in this round is the continuous weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system, and currently, all sovereign countries around the world are maintaining low-interest rate policies. The hedging value of non-interest-bearing assets is constantly being confirmed by the market. Before the U.S. dollar credit system is repaired, precious metal prices are likely to continue to rise.
To understand the rise in gold prices at a deeper level, it is that when the credit of the US dollar is questioned, gold's attribute as the ultimate safe-haven asset is activated, becoming the first choice for global funds to avoid uncertainties. The continuous influx of a large amount of safe-haven funds has injected strong momentum into the rise of gold prices.
Meanwhile, the strategic gold-purchasing activities of global central banks have further built a solid bottom support for gold prices. Central banks of many countries, including China, have continued to increase their gold holdings. The People's Bank of China has even increased its holdings for 14 consecutive months, sending a positive signal. This has provided stable guarantees for the long-term demand for gold and filled the market with confidence in the trend of gold prices.
At this stage, the divergence in the market's views on the trend of gold prices essentially lies in different judgments about short-term fluctuations and long-term trends. The collective bullish sentiment among mainstream institutions further confirms the cyclical nature of this round of gold price increases. Many institutions have raised their target prices for gold to $5,700 to $6,000 per ounce, and some even have expectations of exceeding $7,000 per ounce, which has further boosted the market's bullish sentiment. For example, UBS maintains a bullish stance on gold and has raised its target prices for gold in March, June, and September 2026 to $6,200 per ounce, expecting a moderate decline to $5,900 per ounce by the end of 2026. UBS currently predicts that the upside scenario target for gold is $7,200 per ounce, and the downside scenario target is $4,600 per ounce.
On January 29, the 2025 "Global Gold Demand Trends Report" released by the World Gold Council showed that global total gold demand reached 5,002 tons in 2025, a record high. Sustained geopolitical and economic uncertainties drove a significant surge in gold investment demand, making the total annual gold demand amount to 555 billion US dollars.
In its outlook for the future, the "Global Gold Demand Trends Report" released by the World Gold Council mentioned that in 2025, the demand for gold ETFs in North America showed exceptionally strong performance. However, compared with the surge in previous gold price spikes, the current inflow scale is still moderate, and the holdings are still at a low level relative to other assets. In addition, the demand for gold ETFs in the Asian region has just started to grow on a large scale, and the holdings of gold ETFs in the European region are also far below the previous peak, which reserves sufficient space for subsequent increases in holdings.
Looking ahead to 2026, the World Gold Council points out that if gold prices remain high, the issue of consumers' purchasing power will continue to pose challenges to the demand for gold jewelry. However, the market generally expects that China will adopt interest rate cuts and a relatively loose fiscal policy, which is expected to help boost consumer confidence and, on the whole, be beneficial to the spending on non-essential consumption. Particularly in the first quarter of 2026, the consumption of gold jewelry in the Chinese market may rebound month-on-month, and the peak season during the Spring Festival holiday (seasonal purchases by gold jewelry merchants + holiday purchases by consumers) is expected to provide support.
