The non-ferrous metals market showed early signs of strength in 2025, and 2026 kicked off without warning into a “boiling point.” Prices for the three major precious metals—gold, silver, and platinum—led the charge, while base metals like copper and aluminum followed steadily. Rare metals such as lithium and tungsten also saw gains across the board, creating a spectacular market rally.
This surge in non-ferrous metals is no coincidence, driven by the combined forces of macroeconomic conditions, supply-demand dynamics, and industrial transformation.
First, global liquidity easing serves as the core macro catalyst for this metal rally. Internationally, most non-ferrous metals are priced in US dollars. The release of liquidity has pushed down the US dollar index, boosting the purchasing power of non-dollar holders and providing valuation support for metal prices. Gold, as an inflation-hedging asset, has become the preferred choice for capital, while silver, with its dual industrial attributes, has seen particularly strong catch-up gains.
Simultaneously, domestic liquidity optimization has further reinforced the resilience of the market. Since the beginning of 2026, the People's Bank of China has implemented a series of liquidity optimization measures: increasing the volume of outright reverse repurchase agreements and MLF operations, while regularly conducting 7-day reverse repurchase agreements to solidify the foundation of the funding environment; Simultaneously, it has lowered interest rates on structural tools like re-lending and rediscounting, expanded quotas and broadened the scope of instruments supporting agriculture, small businesses, and technological innovation, ensuring targeted liquidity support for key sectors and weak links. It has also signaled that further cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates remain possible. These measures have alleviated funding pressures along industrial chains, stimulated real-economy demand, and provided support for metals like copper, aluminum, and lithium.
Second, the structural realignment of global nonferrous metal supply and demand patterns provides core fundamental support for price growth. Specifically, on the supply side, global mining capital expenditures have declined steadily over the past five years, with capacity expansion lagging far behind market expectations. According to the Global Mining Development Report 2025 released by the International Mining Research Center of the China Geological Survey under the Ministry of Natural Resources, global exploration investment, drilling activities, and large-scale mining projects have continued to decrease.
On the demand side, new growth drivers are replacing traditional ones. The rapid expansion of AI computing centers, accelerated commercial space industry development, and nationwide grid upgrades have become the primary sources of incremental demand for non-ferrous metals. Taking the AI computing sector as an example, data from the Copper Development Association (CDA) indicates that even at a conservative copper consumption rate of 27kt/GW for data center electricity loads, new data centers added in 2026 alone will consume 460,000 tons of copper. It is evident that the deepening supply-demand mismatch provides fundamental support for non-ferrous metal prices.
Third, the heightened strategic significance of nonferrous metals is driving a sector-wide revaluation. Amid global technological competition and industrial upgrading, new nonferrous materials—including rare earth permanent magnets, high-temperature alloys, and third-generation semiconductor materials—have become critical pillars for advanced manufacturing and defense technology, far exceeding the strategic value of traditional commodities. This strategic nature not only endows nonferrous metals with resilience beyond conventional cycles but also positions them as core components in nations' industrial chain security strategies.
Overall, the three core drivers underpinning the nonferrous metals market continue to exert sustained momentum. With multiple factors converging, the sector's resilience is likely to persist. However, caution is warranted as excessive short-term gains may trigger a temporary correction, while uncertainties remain regarding the pace of global economic recovery and geopolitical shifts. For market participants, rather than chasing short-term gains, it is wiser to focus on supply-demand fundamentals and industrial development trends, thereby navigating the cyclical fluctuations of the sector's upward trajectory.
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