Price trend

According to monitoring data from SunSirs' commodity price analysis system: Last week (January 26-30), the market price of 1# tin ingots in East China fluctuated, initially rising and then falling.  The average market price at the beginning of the week was 438,600 RMB/ton, and by January 30th, the average market price had fallen to 427,370 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.56%.

Market analysis

Tin prices showed a trend of rising first and then falling, a change mainly due to shifts in the supply and demand balance, fluctuations in macroeconomic factors, and changes in market sentiment.

Macroeconomic Overview

The recent weakness of the US dollar made dollar-denominated metal products more attractive to buyers holding other currencies. Meanwhile, precious metal prices continued to rise and reach new historical highs, spreading investment enthusiasm for hard assets to the industrial metals sector. With speculative buying continuing to pour in, investors were betting on further increases in industrial metal prices. However, due to excessive speculative activity, industrial metal prices had significantly deviated from their fundamental support, and high prices had, to some extent, suppressed actual purchasing demand from industrial users. To address this situation, domestic authorities had implemented position limits and strengthened regulatory measures. Subsequently, under pressure from profit-taking, market bullish sentiment cooled down.

Supply Side

Production recovery in Myanmar's Wa State region was slow, and tin production in January was expected to be below 1,000 tons. A full increase in production may not be achieved until the second half of the year. In Indonesia, due to the impact of the export license approval process, tin ingot trading activities were stalled in the first 20 days of January, leading to tight supply. The unstable domestic situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo poses a high risk of disruption to its tin supply.

Domestic smelters were maintaining high operating rates, but the shortage of tin scrap remained a significant problem, particularly in Jiangxi province where refined tin production was relatively low, resulting in limited overall supply growth. Although tin ore processing fees have increased, improving profit expectations in the smelting sector, supply is unlikely to increase significantly in the short term due to constraints on scrap supply.

Demand Side

Weak orders for consumer electronics and home appliances led to sluggish demand for tin in the solder industry. Although the photovoltaic sector was experiencing a short-term surge in exports due to the cancellation of export tax rebates, high raw material prices were offsetting the increase in orders, resulting in limited overall demand support. While demand for tin is growing in high-end manufacturing sectors such as AI servers and new energy vehicles, the increase in emerging demand is not yet sufficient to offset the decline in traditional demand. Downstream industries still have low acceptance of high tin prices and weak willingness to replenish inventory.

In the spot market, prices initially experienced a surge, after which market participants generally adopted a cautious stance. Meanwhile, inventory levels continued to rise, reflecting persistently weak consumer demand in the short term. Recently, domestic policies imposing position limits effectively curbed short-term speculative activity, leading to a shift in market sentiment. Following a certain degree of price decline, trading activity increased, and merchants generally reported higher sales volumes. However, overall demand has not shown significant improvement.

Market outlook:

In the short term, tin prices are expected to remain volatile at high levels, as the tight supply situation persists. However, the interplay between weakdemand and strong future expectations will continue. Attention should be paid to the progress of production resumption in Myanmar, Indonesia's export policies, and the actual realization of emerging demand.

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