Since the beginning of 2026, tin metal prices have surged significantly, with both London and Shanghai markets briefly hitting record highs.

On January 22, tin prices retreated slightly from their peak levels. The LME March tin futures contract peaked at $51,500 per ton during intraday trading. As of 7:00 PM Beijing time, it settled at $51,050 per ton, marking a 26.1% monthly increase. In the domestic market, the main Shanghai tin contract closed at 409,010 yuan per ton on January 22, up 25.32% for the month.

With its rapid surge, tin has emerged as the leading performer in the industrial metals market this year. This rally began in the first quarter of last year, fueled by supply concerns stemming from unexpected disruptions such as the shutdown of the Bisie tin mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Myanmar earthquake. Supply disruptions persisted into this year, compounded by factors like market capital inflows and increased demand from the semiconductor industry, pushing tin prices to surpass their 2022 record highs.

However, some analysts contend that the current tin price surge represents an “irrational exuberance,” largely fueled by speculative bubbles. In fact, as early as December last year, the Tin Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association issued a statement pointing out that the rapid surge in tin prices had completely deviated from industry fundamentals. This round of price increases was “irrational,” and it warned all parties to “avoid blindly following the trend.”

Although the future direction of tin prices remains uncertain, this round of increases has undoubtedly impacted the industrial chain. The Tin Branch stated that for downstream industries like solder, tinplate, and chemicals, the sharp cost increases have imposed heavy pressure. Some small and medium-sized enterprises have fallen into a predicament where they “cannot afford raw materials and dare not accept orders,” making it difficult to fulfill long-term contracts.

The Epic Rise of Tin Prices

This year, gold, silver, copper, and tin all hit record highs simultaneously—an extremely rare occurrence.

The synchronized record highs across these metals stem from multiple converging factors. On one hand, heightened geopolitical tensions have driven investors to seek precious metals like gold, silver, platinum, and palladium as “safety nets” and “safe havens,” pushing their prices upward. On the other hand, global capital is adjusting its asset allocation, showing strong appeal toward assets with preservation and appreciation potential as well as scarcity. Metals driven by robust new demand from sectors like new energy, AI, computing power, and data center construction have become market focal points, while other traditional commodities or assets have seen diminished appeal. This reflects both market risk concerns and capital's optimism toward commodities.

In fact, since the first quarter of last year, tin prices have outpaced gains in copper and gold. Following a cumulative rise of nearly 40% in 2025, LME tin kicked off 2026 with another surge, accumulating nearly 26% gains to date.

The fundamental driver behind this tin price surge is a supply-demand imbalance. Additionally, stable U.S. inflation coupled with pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has created a liquidity-rich environment supporting tin prices. Furthermore, massive capital inflows from investors have propelled tin prices to historic highs.

Mismatched Heat Across Supply Chain

The tin price surge has drawn industry attention. Since December 2025, LME tin has climbed 30% cumulatively, while SHFE tin has surged over 33%.

Though tin is a relatively “niche” base metal, its importance in modern industry cannot be overlooked. As a strategic metal underpinning modern manufacturing, tin consumption in 2025 was distributed as follows: electronic solder accounted for 65%-75% of total consumption, tinplate 15%-20%, chemicals and alloys each around 5%, with emerging applications comprising the remainder.

As a key raw material across multiple industries, persistently high tin prices will ripple through the supply chain. Currently, upstream enterprises involved in resource exploration, mining, and beneficiation are reaping the initial benefits.

In the short term, upstream tin producers may appear to profit from this wave of irrational price surges. However, in the long run, such extreme volatility inevitably disrupts production schedules, inventory management, and long-term investment decisions for relevant companies. In late December last year, the Tin Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association issued a statement noting that the current rapid price surge driven by capital has significantly amplified market risks and caused substantial harm to the healthy development of global industrial and supply chains.

With actual tin demand now entering its traditional off-season, tin prices are expected to correct in the near term absent new supply disruptions or demand surges. However, long-term support for tin prices remains intact as demand accelerates amid the new computing power technology cycle.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 26th, the benchmark price of tin, according to SunSirs.com, was 423,730.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 29.84% compared to the beginning of the month (326,340.00 RMB /ton).

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