On February 3, the China National Petroleum Corporation Economic and Technical Research Institute, a national high-level think tank, released its “Review and Outlook of the Domestic and International Natural Gas Market in 2025.” The report projects that the global natural gas market will see relaxed supply and demand in 2026, with downward pressure on gas prices in Europe and Asia. Factors such as project commissioning progress, geopolitical developments, and extreme weather will become key variables influencing the international market. China's natural gas market will maintain its positive trajectory, playing a crucial supporting role in building a new energy system.

Globally, natural gas production is projected to rise steadily in 2026, with LNG liquefaction capacity also expected to achieve high growth. Supported by active exploration and development activities from international oil and gas companies, global natural gas production is forecast to reach 46 trillion cubic meters in 2026, marking a 1.8% year-on-year increase. Regarding capacity deployment, global planned LNG liquefaction capacity additions for 2026 total 42.16 million tons per year, with actual new capacity expected to reach 25.16 million tons per year. Over the next five years, global LNG liquefaction capacity will remain at a peak commissioning phase, with new capacity additions from 2026 to 2030 reaching 230 million tons—exceeding the total of the past decade.

Within China's domestic market, natural gas demand growth is projected to rebound significantly by 2026. The report projects national natural gas demand to reach 450-455 billion cubic meters in 2026, an increase of 18-23 billion cubic meters year-on-year. This represents a growth rate of 4.2%-5.3%, accelerating by 1.1-2.2 percentage points compared to the previous year. By sector, power generation gas consumption will grow fastest, while urban gas and industrial gas consumption will expand at a relatively rapid pace. Fertilizer and chemical gas consumption will remain stable.

On the supply side, China's natural gas security capabilities will continue to strengthen. Domestic gas production capacity construction is advancing steadily, with output expected to reach 272.8-273.8 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%-3.8%. Imported natural gas will resume growth, with annual imports projected at 185.4-189.4 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%-7.4%. Pipeline gas imports are expected to remain stable overall, while LNG imports are projected to grow by 9.5%-13.8%, primarily influenced by the following factors: First, declining international spot gas prices; second, new LNG import capacity reaching a record high, with an additional capacity of approximately 53 million tons per year, bringing the total capacity to over 210 million tons per year; third, newly contracted long-term agreements amounting to 14.34 million tons per year.

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