Price trend:
According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic toluene market experienced a volatile downward trend followed by a slight rebound in December 2025, showing an overall weak performance. From December 1st to 29th, the domestic toluene market price fluctuated from 5,330 RMB/ton to 5,160 RMB/ton, with a cumulative price decrease of 3.19% during the period. The overall operating range was lower than in November, mainly due to weak supply and demand and insufficient cost support.
In the first half of the month, the domestic toluene market entered a volatile downward trend. Shandong, as a core production area, saw leading refineries lower their prices first. On the 16th, the mainstream price range in the region fell to 5,020-5,050 RMB/ton, a decrease of over 300 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the month. The East China region also weakened simultaneously, with a cautious market trading atmosphere and a lack of substantial positive factors to boost prices, leading to a gradual decline in negotiation levels.
Late in the month: The market experienced range-bound fluctuations. Prices in East and South China saw temporary increases, but weak end-user demand limited the rebound potential. The market remained characterized by weak supply and demand. Refineries actively shipped products to control inventory, but downstream response was muted, resulting in an overall weak and stable fluctuating trend.
Cost side:
In December 2025, the domestic crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend. In the first ten days of the month, the market fluctuated within a narrow range. News of a slight increase in OPEC+ production in December and a suspension of production increases in the first quarter of 2026 briefly boosted market sentiment, but failed to reverse the overall loose supply situation. Domestic commercial crude oil inventories at ports increased by 1.67% month-on-month, indicating initial signs of supply pressure. After the middle of the month, concerns about a global crude oil surplus intensified, causing Brent crude oil to fall below $60/barrel, leading to a decline in the domestic market. Although geopolitical events such as the escalation of US sanctions against Venezuela triggered a short-term rebound, it failed to change the overall trend. Towards the end of the month, as the year-end approached and capital repatriation pressures increased, market trading activity decreased. Domestic main refineries maintained low operating rates, and weak end-user demand persisted, further suppressing oil prices. The entire period was characterized by a volatile downward trend driven by fundamental factors. As of December 29th, the settlement price of the February contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $58.08/barrel. The settlement price of the February contract for Brent crude oil futures was $61.94/barrel, an increase of $1.30 or 2.1%.
Demand side: Downstream buyers were purchasing on an as-needed basis, resulting in overall weak performance.
According to SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, as of December 30th, Sinopec Sales Company was implementing a price of 7,000 RMB/ton, with this price uniformly applied across the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Major production facilities such as those of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, and product sales were normal. Furthermore, the price increased by 150 RMB/ton compared to November 28th.
In the international market: As of December 29, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market was US$867-869/ton FOB Korea and US$892-894/ton CFR China, an increase of US$66/ton compared to the price on November 27.
Domestic oil refining and chemical industries continued their strategy of replenishing inventories on an as-needed basis, resulting in low purchasing activity and no concentrated restocking, thus limiting the upward pressure on prices. The paraxylene (PX) market became a major bearish factor, with the price of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's December PX contract fluctuating significantly in the latter half of the month. The closing price on the 29th was 7,208 RMB/ton, a decrease from the mid-month high, and the price of mixed xylene was pressured downwards due to cost transmission.
Market Outlook
As of December 30, the domestic toluene market was in a state of weak balance between bullish and bearish factors: on the one hand, the rebound in international crude oil prices provided some cost support, limiting the downside potential for toluene; on the other hand, downstream demand was clearly in a weak season, and the weak supply and demand pattern is unlikely to change in the short term, with the market lacking substantial positive drivers. Overall, the toluene market is expected to maintain a volatile and weaker trend in the short term, and attention should be focused on crude oil price trends and improvements in downstream demand.
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