Price trend

According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs, the toluene market fluctuated and rose in November 2025. From November 1st to 28th, the domestic toluene market price increased from 5,150 RMB/ton to 5,330 RMB/ton, a price increase of 3.5% during the period.

Early in the month: The domestic toluene market showed a volatile upward trend, generally progressing at a steady but slightly stronger pace. Major refineries in Shandong province generally raised their ex-factory prices, providing strong support to the market; the East China and South China markets followed suit, with prices rising slightly, and a lively trading atmosphere and good trading order prevailed. Demand remained stable, with downstream chemical and blending industries primarily purchasing based on immediate needs, effectively absorbing upstream price fluctuations and jointly driving the market upward.

Late November: In the latter half of November, the domestic toluene market continued its volatile upward trend, generally exhibiting a stable yet slightly bullish pattern. The core driving factors included the positive impact of rising crude oil prices, which significantly boosted confidence among participants in the spot market. Major refineries generally increased their ex-factory prices accordingly, providing strong support to the market. Demand remained steady, with downstream chemical and blending industries maintaining a just-in-time purchasing approach, effectively absorbing upstream price fluctuations. Prices in East and South China saw slight increases, with smooth supply and demand matching and a generally positive trading atmosphere, further consolidating the overall upward trend of the market.

Market Analysis

Cost Perspective: During this period, international crude oil prices showed a slight downward trend, primarily due to the combined pressure of multiple negative factors: OPEC+ initiated a new round of production increases, and market concerns about long-term oversupply continued to intensify; regional tensions eased, weakening the support of geopolitical risks on oil prices; at the same time, US crude oil demand declined, and its tariff issues further dragged down the global economic outlook and crude oil demand expectations. Under the combined pressure of these factors, international oil prices declined slightly. As of the 26th, the settlement price of the January contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $58.65/barrel, and the settlement price of the February contract for Brent crude oil futures was $62.54/barrel.

Demand Side: According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs, as of November 28th, the domestic market price of p-xylene remained stable. Sinopec Sales Company increased its selling price by 50 RMB/ton compared to the previous period, now reporting 6850 RMB/ton. This price is uniformly implemented in the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Major plants such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical were operating stably, and product sales were normal. Furthermore, the price had increased by 150 RMB/ton compared to October 31st, indicating an overall stable to upward trend in the domestic market. 

International market: As of November 27th, the closing price range for paraxylene in the Asian region was $801-803/ton (FOB South Korea) and $826-828/ton (CFR China), a decrease of $9/ton compared to October 30th. The international market performed slightly weaker than the domestic market.

Market Outlook

Recently, the domestic toluene market was mainly characterized by stability, with prices primarily driven by crude oil trends and supply-demand dynamics: the international crude oil market weakened slightly, exerting some downward pressure on spot market sentiment. Demand remained stable, with downstream companies replenishing stocks based on actual production needs, without any significant increase or decrease in inventory. Overall, the toluene market was stable, and influenced by the short-term decline in crude oil prices, it is expected to maintain a stable to slightly weaker trend in the short term.

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