Entering 2026, sulfur prices—a key raw material for monoammonium phosphate—have fluctuated at elevated levels. Port granular sulfur prices surged to 4,370 yuan per ton before retreating to 4,130 yuan, marking a 5.49% decline. Meanwhile, sulfuric acid prices remain high and continue to climb, with Hubei's mainstream delivered sulfuric acid average rising 6% to 1,075 yuan, underpinning the firmness of the monoammonium phosphate market. As of February 9, the mainstream ex-factory price for 55% granular MAP in Hubei stood at 3,850 yuan, unchanged from the beginning of the year. On the supply side, domestic MAP production in February is projected at 930,000 tons, down 33,600 tons (3.49%) month-on-month. While most facilities maintained normal operations, the production decline primarily resulted from February's shorter calendar days. On the demand side, major compound fertilizer manufacturers completed pre-holiday stockpiling, while smaller plants showed low purchasing enthusiasm. With the Spring Festival approaching, MAP price fluctuations remain limited, and post-holiday market conditions are expected to remain firm.

Historically, post-holiday MAP prices in the Hubei market have generally stabilized. During the holiday period, MAP production saw a slight decline. Post-holiday, the market's primary focus will be on the raw material procurement pace of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises. If concentrated replenishment orders occur, coupled with cost support from post-holiday sulfur price increases, this could bolster MAP market sentiment. Conversely, if downstream demand remains persistently weak, MAP prices are unlikely to rise post-holiday and will most likely stabilize amid a wait-and-see approach.

Regarding pricing, in January, the domestic spot average price of MAP stood at 3,850 yuan, marking a month-on-month increase of 2.20% and a year-on-year rise of 28.88%. During the same period, the price of ammonium sulfate, a key raw material for MAP, remained at elevated levels with industry costs staying high overall. Coupled with phased raw material stockpiling by downstream compound fertilizer enterprises boosting market sentiment, domestic MAP prices dipped slightly before rebounding rapidly. Specifically, in the Hubei market, the ex-factory price of 55% powdered MAP rebounded from 3,750–3,850 yuan to 3,830–3,850 yuan, with only minor adjustments of 50–80 yuan at the lower end.

Regarding supply, historical data shows domestic MAP capacity utilization typically declines before rising in the first quarter. From 2024 to 2025, weekly industry capacity utilization in Q1 ranged between 42.92% and 53.19%. In early February this year, the industry's capacity utilization rate is projected to reach 65%, exceeding the historical average by 7 percentage points and hitting a three-year high. Post-Spring Festival, the industry's capacity utilization rate is expected to remain at a relatively high level. Due to seasonal factors, international supply constraints have driven up overseas prices for sulfur, a key raw material, while domestic prices have sustained their high levels. Sulfuric acid prices also remain firm, providing sustained cost support for the industry.

Regarding downstream demand, as of early February, the capacity utilization rate for compound fertilizers stood at 41.79%, up 15.45 percentage points year-on-year and 0.45 percentage points month-on-month. This increase primarily resulted from improved production rates in Hebei, Hubei, Shandong, and Henan provinces due to enhanced shipment volumes, while other regions saw limited changes. It is anticipated that the compound fertilizer industry's utilization rate will decline during the Spring Festival period.

Regarding downstream inventory, as of early February, sample compound fertilizer enterprises held 749,300 metric tons of inventory, down 6,300 metric tons (0.83%) month-on-month. Boosted by rising prices of raw materials like urea and potash fertilizers, some distributors actively procured goods, with a higher proportion flowing to Northeast China. During the Spring Festival period, logistics disruptions and industry holidays are expected to significantly reduce compound fertilizer factory shipments.

Overall, monoammonium phosphate (MAP) raw material prices will remain elevated with narrow fluctuations, keeping costs stubbornly high. Supply-side operations remain stable, while demand is expected to be driven by downstream compound fertilizer plants reducing finished product inventories and increasing operating rates after the Spring Festival. However, the winter stockpiling gap is limited, and coupled with current high prices, MAP price fluctuations are expected to be limited, with prices likely to remain firm.

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