Since 2026, the bromine market has exhibited a rapid upward trend. Domestic bromine prices stood at CNY34,500 per ton in early January. By February 9, domestic market prices had surged to CNY42,500 per ton. In just 30 days, prices soared by CNY8,000 per ton, marking an increase exceeding 23%!

Notably, this surge occurs during the traditional off-season for bromine demand, with prices now hovering around ¥42,500/ton. “The period before the Spring Festival typically sees weak supply and demand for bromine. Few commodities have experienced such a significant price jump this year,” remarked a manager from a Shandong chemical company.

What drives this unusual market volatility? What risks warrant attention amid the surge? Let's analyze.

Major Production Hubs Shut Down for 2 Months! Overseas Supply “Cut Off”!

Industry chain interviews reveal that bromine prices have climbed steadily since early 2026 due to domestic production halts and restrictions, coupled with disrupted import channels. Some companies quoted bromine at around ¥45,000 /ton in early February—double last year's low point.

Supply Shortage Forces Multiple Companies to Cut Production or Shut Down!

Mandatory winter shutdowns in major domestic production areas are the primary internal driver of this supply crunch. Weifang, Shandong—a key bromine production hub—enforces a winter shutdown from December 1 to February 28 annually. This year, bromine producers in Weifang's Binhai, Changyi, and Shouguang districts began production halts and restrictions starting December 26, 2025.

In January 2026, China's bromine output plummeted 22% year-on-year and 44% month-on-month. With manufacturers holding no inventory and downstream buyers lacking stockpiles, virtually no circulating supply exists in the market, further exacerbating the supply crunch.

Overseas Supply Disruption

China is the world's largest bromine importer, relying on imports for over half its demand. However, simultaneous disruptions in its two primary import sources dramatically widened the domestic supply gap.

Global Leader Cuts Output: ICL, the world's largest producer, has reduced bromine exports since 2025 while increasing output of its downstream bromide products.

Unexpected Natural Disaster Impact: On January 21, 2026, heavy rains triggered flooding in southern Jordan, disrupting supply from Jordan Bromine Company (JBC)—the world's second-largest bromine production base. JBC produces 100,000 tons of bromine annually, accounting for 13%-14% of global capacity.

Bromine Price Outlook for the Next Three Months

The bromine market is likely to maintain tight supply conditions before the Chinese New Year, with holders reluctant to sell at low prices, making high-level price fluctuations probable. As supply dynamics shift, the bromine market may see a price inflection point in March, potentially exhibiting a stable-to-declining trend, resulting in an overall monthly average price below the previous month's level. April marks the peak production season for seawater bromine. With stable imports expected and supply pressures easing, prices may weaken further.

Despite bromine's remarkable rally, multiple uncertainties lurk beneath the surface. Industry leaders should remain vigilant against these downside risks:

Uncertainty in Overseas Supply Recovery

The core reasons for the current overseas supply disruption are ICL's voluntary production cuts in Israel and the facility accident at Jordan's JBC. Should international circumstances change, the Jordanian facility repair progress exceed expectations, or ICL adjust its production cut strategy to resume exports, the global bromine supply landscape could rapidly improve. Once China's import channels resume, the market supply gap will narrow significantly, creating downward pressure on bromine prices.

Industry Capacity and Policy Risks

On one hand, the winter shutdown policy in Weifang—China's primary bromine production area—will conclude by late February. As idled plants resume operations, domestic bromine supply will gradually increase, alleviating inventory constraints. On the other hand, ongoing tightening of environmental policies in the chemical industry may elevate production costs and compress profit margins.

Risk of Demand Suppression at Elevated Price Levels

Although downstream acceptance of bromine price increases remains relatively high at present, sustained surges to historic highs would substantially increase cost pressures for downstream enterprises. This could trigger reduced procurement and delayed stockpiling, suppressing demand and ultimately forcing bromine prices lower—creating a “price hike → demand contraction → price correction” cycle.

Overall, the current bromine price surge is underpinned by solid fundamentals. However, sustained long-term growth hinges on the persistence of supply-demand imbalances. Relevant industries should closely monitor key variables such as the recovery of overseas supply and the release of domestic production capacity, while remaining vigilant against potential risk shocks.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.