Recently, domestic tungsten product prices have hit record highs, highlighting the industry's supply-demand imbalance. By the end of January, prices for black tungsten concentrate (65%) and white tungsten concentrate (65%) had surged 291.0% and 294.1% year-on-year, respectively. Supported by rigid supply constraints and explosive demand growth, tungsten prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term.

Tungsten Prices Show Overall Volatile Uptrend

Reaching Record Highs

The tungsten industry chain encompasses upstream mining and beneficiation, midstream smelting and processing, and downstream hard alloy deep processing. Since 2025, tungsten product prices have entered an overall upward trajectory, with particularly significant increases in the mid- and upstream segments. By the end of January, black tungsten concentrate (65%) reached 565,000 RMB/ton, while white tungsten concentrate (65%) stood at 559,000 RMB/ton, representing year-on-year increases of 291.0% and 294.1%, respectively. Midstream ammonium paratungstate (APT) and tungsten powder were quoted at ¥810,000/ton and ¥1,255,000/ton respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 284.6% and 301.6%. Downstream cemented carbide products maintained relatively stable prices due to intense order competition, with cost pressures slow to transmit, squeezing corporate profit margins.

Multiple Factors Drive Sustained Tungsten Price Hikes

First, supply has significantly contracted. As a non-renewable resource, years of continuous mining have drastically depleted reserves, intensifying supply pressures. According to Wind data, China's tungsten output declined from 73,000 tons to 67,000 tons between 2015 and 2024, representing an 8.95% decrease. First, mining quotas and intensified environmental inspections have tightened supply. The first batch of total production quotas for tungsten mines in 2025 was reduced to 58,000 tons, a 6.5% year-on-year decrease. Major producing regions like Jiangxi and Yunnan saw reduced quotas, while low-yield areas had their quotas set to zero. Following the second round of environmental inspections, the operating rate of domestic tungsten concentrate plants dropped below 35%, with weekly output decreasing by approximately 200 tons year-on-year. Second, production costs have risen continuously. From 2004 to 2024, the average grade of raw tungsten ore declined from 0.42% to below 0.27%. Unit extraction costs for concentrate have surged to over CNY100,000 per ton (excluding taxes), more than five times the 2000 level. Third, the reserve-to-production ratio remains low. In 2024, China's tungsten reserve-to-production ratio stood at 36 years, significantly below the global average of 57 years, driving continued tightening of mining control policies.

Second, demand continues to climb. In recent years, global tungsten demand has grown steadily. From 2000 to 2024, global tungsten consumption increased from 44,900 tons to 119,200 tons, a 1.65-fold increase. China's consumption rose from 12,900 tons to 70,800 tons, a 4.49-fold increase. First, demand in the military sector has surged. Tungsten alloys are widely used in bullet projectiles and armor-piercing projectiles. In 2024, global military spending reached $2.7 trillion, a 9.4% year-on-year increase. China's defense budget for 2025 stands at CNY 1.78 trillion, a 7.2% year-on-year increase. The United States plans to increase its tungsten reserves from 266 tons to 2,041 tons by 2025, representing a 667.3% increase. Second, demand in the new energy sector is exploding. Photovoltaic tungsten filaments are accelerating the replacement of traditional carbon steel wires. Their penetration rate was under 15% in 2023, reached approximately 20% in 2024, and is projected to exceed 40% in 2025. Global cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity grew from 294GW in 2016 to 1,858GW in 2024, while China's capacity increased from 77GW to 886GW. Third, controlled nuclear fusion opens new demand channels. Tungsten serves as a critical reactor material. France's WEST facility launched a tender for 6,000 tons of tungsten components, while China's EAST facility achieved 100 million degree Celsius operation. A single reactor requires 29,000 tons of tungsten over its entire lifecycle.

Third, policy restrictions and intensifying international competition exacerbate supply chain tensions. By 2024, China's tungsten reserves reached 2.4 million tons, accounting for 52.0% of the global total, while production hit 67,000 tons, representing 82.7% of global output, establishing dominant control over the industry chain. In December 2024, China banned exports of tungsten-containing solid propellants for U.S. military applications. By February 2025, it implemented export licensing controls on ammonium paratungstate and tungsten oxide, restricting outflows of mid-to-high-end tungsten products. In July 2025, the U.S. passed the “Big and Beautiful Act,” allocating $6.2 million to restart domestic tungsten mining projects and establishing a $100 billion credit facility to support critical mineral production. This reinforced expectations of a “supply contraction and demand expansion” in the global supply chain, bolstering tungsten prices.

The Far-Reaching Impact of Rising Tungsten Prices

First, profit divergence across the industrial chain. Upstream tungsten mining and processing enterprises saw explosive profit growth. In the first three quarters of 2025, Xiamen Tungsten recorded revenue of RMB 32.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, with net profit reaching RMB 1.78 billion, up 27.1% year-on-year. China Tungsten High-Tech achieved revenue of RMB 12.76 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%, with net profit of RMB 850 million, up 18.3% year-on-year. Shizhuyuan Nonferrous Metals recorded revenue of RMB 1.66 billion, up 31.3% year-on-year, with net profit reaching RMB 690 million, a 44.1% increase. Downstream cemented carbide enterprises face immense cost pressures. In the first three quarters of 2025, OKB's net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 50 million, down 43.1% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 4.7%, a 52.9% decline.

Second, the foreign trade market structure has optimized. On one hand, securing domestic tungsten ore resources has become significantly more challenging, driving up imports. From January to October 2025, tungsten product imports reached 17,900 tons, a 36.5% year-on-year increase, with import value totaling CNY 2.37 billion, up 34.7% year-on-year. On the other hand, tungsten product exports are transitioning from primary products to high-value-added sectors like cemented carbide and tungsten materials. Tungsten concentrate exports plummeted from 10,900 metric tons in 1985 to just 49 metric tons in 2024. Between 2017 and 2024, exports of raw-grade tungsten products decreased from 26,400 metric tons to 15,500 metric tons, a 41.3% decline, while exports of cemented carbide surged from CNY 3.29 billion to CNY 4.79 billion, a 45.6% increase.

Third, the international competitive landscape is being reshaped. First, international supply chains face pressure as costs surge for overseas downstream industries. European APT prices reached CNY 366,000–410,000 per ton, commanding a premium exceeding 20% over domestic prices. Second, developed economies like Europe and the U.S. are accelerating efforts to rebuild their tungsten supply chains, though China’s dominant position remains unshakable in the short term. The EU aims to increase its domestic tungsten processing share to 40% by 2030. However, ongoing global tungsten mine projects face lengthy development cycles and high costs, making short-term supply-demand dynamics unlikely to shift.

Short-Term Volatility at Elevated Levels; Long-Term Uptrend

In the short term, tungsten prices exhibit high-level volatility. Supporting factors include: absolute supply tightness due to rigid mining quotas and environmental restrictions on mine operation rates; sustained demand from defense and photovoltaic orders; market expectations for government stockpiling policies; and price stabilization from long-term contracts by industry leaders like Xiamen Tungsten. Constraining factors include: high prices potentially dampening demand as downstream enterprises reduce production and adopt a wait-and-see approach; increased recycled tungsten capacity from companies like GEM; and extended export approval processes temporarily suppressing some demand.

The medium-to-long-term price center for tungsten will undergo a systemic upward shift. On the supply side, mining quota growth remains cautious, with resource depletion and rising environmental costs forming rigid constraints. On the demand side, defense and new energy sectors serve as dual engines. At the policy and strategic level, normalized export controls and intensifying global strategic stockpiling competition make tungsten prices “easier to rise than to fall.”

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