Currently, fertilizer prices remain at relatively high levels, with multiple factors—including adjustments to international trade policies and energy price volatility—exacerbating market uncertainty. Regarding future trends, several analysts and corporate executives in the global agriculture and agricultural supplies sector recently stated on public platforms that fertilizer prices will remain firm through 2026.

Keith Busch, CEO of ClearCost, noted that structural supply shortages, trade disruptions, and rising logistics costs are persistently driving up global fertilizer prices. Fertilizer prices are expected to remain strongly supported in the coming years, with little prospect of a substantial decline in the short term. He highlighted significant global supply gaps for nitrogen and phosphorus, noting that the lengthy industry construction cycle means restoring supply-demand balance will take time. Nitrogen supply-demand equilibrium may require about two years to return, while phosphorus balance could take three to four years. Geopolitical and trade complexities further intensify cost pressures. Although fertilizers from Russia, Ukraine, and Iran continue to flow into global markets, supply chain channels have become highly convoluted. Compared to previous low-cost supply patterns, their stabilizing effect on global fertilizer prices has largely dissipated.

Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizer at StoneX, also holds a pessimistic outlook on fertilizer prices returning to low levels. Currently, major global nitrogen fertilizer exporters face varying degrees of supply constraints: Iran, the world's third-largest urea exporter, may see supply disrupted by ongoing domestic tensions; the EU, a key trading region for urea, liquid ammonia, and UAN (urea ammonium nitrate solution), has only restored production to 75% of normal levels; Russia, the world's largest urea exporter and formerly the top exporter of liquid ammonia and UAN before the Ukraine crisis, continues to face uncertainty in its fertilizer exports due to ongoing tensions. Josh Linville anticipates that while fertilizer prices in 2026 won't surge to 2022's peak levels, they are unlikely to fall back to the lows seen in 2020.

Silje Ingeberg Nygaard, Director of International Market Intelligence at Yara, stated at a company event that despite China's urea exports surging significantly in 2025 compared to the previous year, global urea prices still rose. Nygaard pointed out that global urea demand is growing steadily at an annual rate of 1.7%, while supply-side growth lags behind demand. Since 2010, global urea production capacity has increased by 50 million tons, yet actual output rose by only 30 million tons during the same period. Plant closures and low capacity utilization rates are the core reasons. She calculated that over the next decade, based on China's export patterns, global urea supply must increase by 3.9 million tons annually to match demand growth. However, given the current industry landscape, the scale of new capacity additions over the next five years will clearly fall short of this target.

Supply-side pressures in the phosphate fertilizer market are equally pronounced. Josh Linville analyzed that two key factors are driving phosphate fertilizer prices to remain elevated. First, China's phosphate fertilizer exports have sharply contracted, with exports not expected to resume until August 2026. Second, the production challenges surrounding superphosphate. As a low-phosphorus fertilizer product, superphosphate production relies heavily on sulfur. Recent sharp increases in sulfur prices have significantly raised production costs. One superphosphate plant in Brazil has already halted operations due to these costs, and Linwell anticipates more plants may follow suit. Linwell stated bluntly that current phosphate fertilizer prices are already at elevated levels, and a substantial decline remains unlikely in the near term.

Samuel Taylor, Senior Agricultural Input Analyst at Rabobank, also noted that U.S. tariff policies have kept phosphate fertilizer prices elevated. Even if some tariffs are later removed, they are unlikely to trigger significant price fluctuations. Concurrently, China's reduced phosphate fertilizer exports, coupled with declining shipments from Russia, Morocco, and Saudi Arabia, have further tightened global supply. These converging factors collectively drive sustained high costs within the phosphate fertilizer industry.

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