In early February, with the Lunar New Year nearing, agricultural supply markets in many regions entered their off-season. How are distributors feeling? Reporter interviewed agricultural supply distributors in Yunnan, Hunan, Henan, and Sichuan: In Lengshuijiang City, Hunan, fruit and vegetable prices remain elevated, dampening winter stockpiling intentions; in Qixian County, Henan, weather delays fertilizer application schedules, with secondary distributors showing low enthusiasm; in Deyang City, Sichuan, demand is sluggish, leaving agricultural products priced but unsold; in Linyi, Shandong, fertilizer prices remain stable at high levels, though local farmers' planting intentions are low due to weather and market conditions.

Lanying County, Linyi City, Shandong Province: Compound fertilizer prices are relatively high.

Planting Information: The region primarily cultivates field crops like wheat and corn, along with cash crops such as garlic. Garlic is a local specialty agricultural product, with cash crops (including garlic) accounting for approximately 20% of the total cultivated area. Locally, the corn fertilization season typically occurs from May to June, while garlic and wheat fertilization takes place from September to October. The current period is considered the off-season for fertilizer use. Although there is some demand for wheat top-dressing in spring, the volume is limited, and a small number of farmers may choose to skip top-dressing altogether.

Price Information: According to interviewed distributors, fertilizer prices in the area experienced significant fluctuations about a month ago but have stabilized overall recently. This dealer has stocked little fertilizer for winter and plans to purchase spot goods after the Spring Festival. “Spring fertilizer demand is low. Even if prices rise during spring plowing, it won't significantly impact operations.”

Urea prices have seen a slight increase, with current wholesale prices around 1,800 yuan per ton. Retail prices for 50-kg bags are over CNY 90. When discussing future urea trends, the dealer stated it's too early to predict, citing reduced local urea usage and lower demand compared to previous periods. “Farmers' fertilizer habits have changed—they're less likely to choose urea for wheat top-dressing and prefer high-nitrogen compound fertilizers instead,” the dealer explained. “Urea price movements will depend on export volumes; increased exports could drive prices up.”

Regarding diammonium phosphate (DAP), demand is currently minimal, with peak usage occurring in autumn and summer. The dealer noted that DAP prices surged significantly late last year and remain elevated, with 64% DAP wholesale prices holding steady between CNY4,400 and 4,500.

Compound fertilizers constitute the dealer's primary product line. Local compound fertilizer prices experienced a notable increase one month ago. Recently, local compound fertilizer prices have stabilized, with many manufacturers not issuing new quotations. However, the dealer believes upward price pressure persists. Currently, the retail price for 50kg bags of 40% (30-5-5) chloride-based compound fertilizer ranges from CNY 140 to 150, varying by brand. This is the most commonly used fertilizer for wheat top-dressing among local farmers.

The dealer anticipates potential future increases in compound fertilizer prices. He further explained that current urea prices have seen slight upward adjustments, while phosphate and potash fertilizer prices remain relatively firm, providing sufficient raw material price support for compound fertilizers. Should phosphate and potash fertilizer prices rise later, compound fertilizer prices are highly likely to follow suit.

Additional Insights: In the dealer's view, weather remains the primary factor affecting agricultural supply operations. Last autumn's frequent rainfall delayed wheat sowing, resulting in weaker seedling conditions. However, some farmers have not only refrained from applying additional fertilizer but also adopted a pessimistic outlook on crop growth, reducing fertilizer usage and allowing crops to grow naturally. The dealer expressed concern that delayed planting combined with reduced fertilizer application may lead to lower wheat yields this year. Consequently, he plans to promote more potassium dihydrogen phosphate and foliar fertilizers after the Spring Festival to help farmers maximize wheat production.

According to reports, the garlic industry, which previously enjoyed favorable development, has faced poor market conditions over the past year or two. This has led some garlic farmers to reduce fertilizer inputs. Prices for other cash crops remain low as well, particularly lettuce. The annual planting cost per mu (approximately 0.067 acres) is around CNY 17,000, but current lettuce prices are so low that farmers cannot even recoup their costs. In some cases, lettuce farming yields lower returns than growing field crops.

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