Since late January, sulfur prices—a key raw material for monoammonium phosphate—have entered a sustained downward trend. As of February 2, sulfur granules at the Yangtze River port had fallen by 220 yuan per ton from their peak, marking a 9.28% decline. This translates to an approximate 100-yuan reduction in monoammonium phosphate production costs per ton. Despite this easing of raw material cost pressure, MAP market quotations have remained firm and stable. With sulfur prices still trending downward, the future trajectory of the MAP market has become the industry's primary focus.

01 Sulfur Prices Retreat from Highs

Recently, sulfur prices—a core raw material for MAP—have continued to decline. As of February 2, the self-pickup price for sulfur granules at the Yangtze River port fell to 4,150 yuan, down 220 yuan from the mid-January peak of 4,370 yuan, representing a drop of over 9%. This has reduced sulfur consumption costs per ton of MAP by approximately 100 yuan. However, sulfur prices remain elevated, standing 2,570 yuan higher than the same period last year—a year-on-year increase of approximately 163%. Taking Hubei Province as an example, based on current prices for raw materials such as phosphate rock, synthetic ammonia, and sulfuric acid production, the theoretical total production cost for MAP still reaches 4,157 yuan per ton. Even when employing the smelting acid process, production costs remain largely on par with current selling prices, leaving the industry barely breaking even.

02 Ammonium Monophosphate Producers Hold Adequate Backlogs

In early January, driven by strong cost support from sharply rising sulfur prices and dim prospects for AM price declines, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises initiated pre-Lunar New Year raw material stockpiling. Coupled with concurrent demand from some traders, AM producers saw significant increases in advance orders, sustaining robust market sentiment. By the end of January, the backlog of shipments at sampled MAP producers exceeded 530,000 tons, marking a month-on-month increase of 2.26%. Despite the current market demand slowing again, with new order transactions subdued and downstream buyers only purchasing small quantities for immediate needs, the MAP producers' backlog remains ample, sufficient for most to operate through the post-Spring Festival period. Coupled with persistently high costs, some producers continue suspending or restricting new orders, keeping MAP prices stable.

03 MAP Prices Hold Firm on Cost and Backlog Support

Currently, MAP market prices remain resilient, underpinned by high production costs and ample backlogs. On the cost side, although sulfur prices have declined slightly in the short term, they remain elevated. Furthermore, international prices continue to rise—Qatar's February 2026 sulfur contract FOB price stands at $520, up $3 month-on-month. This translates to a landed price of $546–547 at China's Yangtze River ports and northern regions. Calculated at an exchange rate of 6.97, the RMB price is 4393–4401 yuan. Additionally, other raw materials like phosphate rock and sulfuric acid remain expensive, keeping overall industry production costs elevated. On the demand side, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are currently purchasing only small quantities to meet immediate needs. However, corporate raw material inventories are low, and overall social inventories are limited, resulting in subdued demand before the Spring Festival. Following the Spring Festival, as the market gradually resumes operations, a new round of raw material replenishment demand is expected to materialize. Overall, the monoammonium phosphate market is projected to maintain its firm, high-level position with narrow fluctuations, and the likelihood of significant price volatility remains low.

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