In 2025, geopolitical tensions persisted over the Ukraine crisis, the Red Sea crisis, and the Middle East situation, leaving the global fertilizer supply chain entrenched in prolonged uncertainty and volatility.

European Union:

Using Fertilizers as a Political Tool: Repeated Sanctions Backfire

In 2025, the EU repeatedly escalated sanctions against Russia and Belarus under the pretexts of “increasing pressure on Russia over the Ukraine crisis” and “supporting local EU fertilizer producers.” However, the EU overlooked its own heavy reliance on fertilizers from these two countries, pushing farmers across the EU to the brink of crisis. Currently, European fertilizer prices remain approximately 20% higher than last year, with core products like urea reaching double the 2020 price levels. Many farms have consequently reduced fertilizer usage, facing risks of reduced grain production. It is reported that over a quarter of the EU's nitrogen fertilizer imports originate from Russia, with significant additional imports coming from Belarus. In 2024, the EU imported 4.4 million tons of fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, accounting for roughly 30% of its total fertilizer imports. Moreover, EU sanctions on cheap Russian natural gas have driven European gas prices to nearly four times those in the United States. This has not only failed to revive Europe's domestic fertilizer industry but has also intensified pressure on EU fertilizer producers, placing them at a significant competitive disadvantage.

In January 2025, the European Commission proposed raising tariffs on Russian nitrogen fertilizers from 6.5% to approximately 14% starting July 1, 2025, with a final increase to €315–430 per ton over the next three years—potentially equivalent to 100% of the product's value.

On May 22, 2025, the European Parliament approved a new 6.5% tariff on imported fertilizers from Russia and Belarus, effective July 1 of that year, with phased implementation over the next three years. Under the legislation, the EU will impose an additional tariff of €40–45 per ton by mid-2026 on top of the existing 6.5% fertilizer tariff. From mid-2026, the tariff will rise to €60–70 per ton, further increasing to €80–95 in 2027, and then sharply jumping to €315–430 in 2028. This will essentially eliminate the economic viability of imported fertilizers from Russia and Belarus.

On July 10, 2025, Michał Baranowski, Poland's Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Technology, announced that due to the EU's tariff policy, imports of Russian and Belarusian fertilizers into the European market would cease entirely by July 1, 2028.

Russia and Belarus: Exports Rise Amid Sanctions Wave

Sales Focus Shifts to BRICS Nations

Russia and Belarus have consistently maintained that EU sanctions impact the EU itself far more than they affect the two nations.

Until 2022, the EU was typically Russia's largest fertilizer buyer, accounting for approximately 28% of its exports. However, amid the wave of Western sanctions, Russia stated it “fears no tariffs or fees,” expressing optimism about the growth potential of BRICS markets and redirecting most of its fertilizer trade to these nations. According to Reuters, Russian fertilizer producers expect to increase their global market share to 25% by 2030, up from the current 20%.

For Belarus, following Western sanctions in 2022, its potash exports achieved rapid recovery by establishing new trade routes. Data shows that from January to October 2025, its export volume grew by 13% year-on-year, reaching 10.1 million tons. Projected at this growth rate, supply is expected to reach a historic high within 2025.

In March 2025, Russia exported fertilizers worth $219.3 million to the United States, doubling its monthly export volume and achieving a 25% year-on-year increase—marking the highest level in nearly two years. This performance repositioned Russia as the second-largest fertilizer supplier to the U.S. market, surpassing Saudi Arabia.

In July 2025, at the BRICS Business Forum, Andrey Guryev, Chairman of the Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers (RAFP), stated that Russia's fertilizer exports to BRICS nations had surged by over 60% in the past three years. “BRICS countries account for half of Russia's fertilizer exports, with Brazil representing the largest share (nearly a quarter).” As the world's largest fertilizer importer, Brazil relies on imports for 70% of its fertilizer demand, with Russia currently supplying nearly one-third of that volume.

Data shows that from January to July 2025, Russia was Brazil's largest fertilizer supplier, exporting 6.88 million tons, accounting for 28.2% of Brazil's total imports. From January to October 2025, Brazil imported 9.72 million tons of fertilizer from Russia, slightly less than the 9.77 million tons imported from China. However, Russia remains a crucial strategic supplier of potassium chloride to Brazil.

Morocco and Egypt:

Benefiting from Global Fertilizer Market Turmoil

Emerging as Alternative Suppliers to Major Import Markets

Amid heightened geopolitical tensions, these two African nations seized the opportunity to successfully establish themselves as alternative suppliers to Europe, capitalizing on the volatility in the global fertilizer market.

Currently, Morocco has strategically positioned itself as an alternative supplier of phosphates to Europe, filling the market share vacated by China and Russia due to export restrictions and sanctions. Data from Morocco's Foreign Exchange Administration shows that in the first three quarters of 2025, the country's phosphate and derivative exports surged by 19.2% to 74.65 billion dirhams (equivalent to $6.8 billion), a significant increase from 62.6 billion dirhams during the same period last year.

Simultaneously, affected by U.S. tariff sanctions, Morocco has also become an alternative supplier for major importing countries like Brazil and India facing secondary sanctions risks. Data from the Arab-Brazilian Chamber of Commerce (ABCC) shows that in the first ten months of 2025, Morocco's fertilizer exports to Brazil increased by 30% year-on-year, with total fertilizer exports reaching $1.31 billion, a 3.6% increase compared to the same period last year. India is also intensifying efforts to secure long-term fertilizer supplies from Morocco. Currently, the OCP Group supplies approximately 20% of India's phosphate rock imports and one-third of its phosphoric acid demand, while dominating the processed fertilizer market—its products cover over 90% of India's domestic diammonium phosphate (DAP) consumption and all triple superphosphate (TSP) consumption.

Despite production shortfalls due to declining natural gas reserves, Egypt is emerging as an alternative supplier to the European ammonia market, leveraging its advantageous geostrategic position. Furthermore, to offset rising natural gas costs, Egypt has adjusted export caps on fertilizer products. Previously, Egyptian fertilizer companies could only export 45% of their output. Now, they will be permitted to export up to 55% of production, reducing quotas reserved for government-mandated purchases. According to trade data from the Central Bank of Egypt, amid soaring global prices, Egypt's fertilizer exports achieved their highest return in a decade, reaching $2.2 billion.

Brazil: Fertilizer Imports Hit New Records

Market Prospects Attract Investment in New Plants

Geopolitical instability and escalating tariff policies continue to disrupt fertilizer trade flows. As a major fertilizer consumer, Brazil has actively procured fertilizers to avoid potential shortages, with monthly imports in 2025 repeatedly hitting recent or annual highs. Concurrently, Brazil's robust agricultural production and thriving market outlook have attracted significant foreign investment in new plant construction or market expansion.

In February 2025, Israel's Haifa Group commenced construction of a new controlled-release fertilizer plant in Uberlândia, Brazil, with an initial annual capacity of 6,000 tons. Plans include expanding production to 20,000 tons within five years, ultimately reaching 30,000 tons annually—a pivotal step in Haifa's Brazilian expansion.

From January to April 2025, Brazil imported 11.54 million tons of fertilizers, marking a 13% year-on-year increase and setting the highest record since 2021. Typically, Brazil's fertilizer imports are lowest during the first four months of the year, experiencing strong growth starting in May and peaking in the second half.

In July 2025, U.S.-based Mosaic announced the official launch of its new fertilizer blending, storage, and distribution facility in Parmelant, Tocantins State, Brazil. This initiative provides farmers in the Mato Pira region with more efficient access to fertilizers, expanding Mosaic's growing market share in Brazil's northern agricultural belt.

In July 2025, Brazil imported 4.79 million tons of fertilizers, the largest single-month volume since the start of the year, according to data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, and Foreign Trade (MDIC).

From January to October 2025, Brazil's total fertilizer imports reached 38.3 million tons, a 4.6% year-on-year increase, while import value hit US$13.2 billion, up 16% year-on-year, per data from the Foreign Trade Secretariat.

India: Diphosphate of Ammonium Shortage Crisis Persists Throughout the Year

Proactive Diplomacy Ensures Stable Fertilizer Supply

India consumes over 10 million tons of diphosphate of ammonium annually, second only to urea in consumption volume. As the world's largest importer of diphosphate of ammonium, India relies on imports for nearly 100% of its supply. However, in 2024, unfavorable import economics and intense market competition led to a significant depletion of India's DAP stockpiles, falling far below historical averages. Statistics show that India imported 4.65 million tons of DAP in 2024, a sharp 40% decline from 2023. Beyond the sharp decline in Chinese DAP exports and soaring global prices driven by surging raw material costs like phosphate rock and sulfur, India's primary procurement obstacle stems from private sector reluctance due to import losses. In response, the Indian government has repeatedly raised subsidy levels and introduced additional DAP subsidies.

On January 1, 2025, the Indian government extended the special subsidy of 3,500 rupees per ton for DAP into the new year to stabilize fertilizer prices for farmers. This special subsidy, approved in July 2024 and effective from April 2024, was initially set to expire on December 31, 2024.

In April 2025, the Indian government approved nutrient subsidies for phosphate and potash fertilizers during the Kharif season (April to September). The total budget reached 372.16 billion rupees (US$4.35 billion), exceeding the agricultural subsidies for FY 2024/2025 by 130 billion rupees and surpassing the previous year's dry season allocation by approximately 128 billion rupees.

Despite this, India faced a severe diammonium phosphate (DAP) shortage throughout 2025. On June 1, 2025, India's DAP stockpiles stood at 1.24 million tons, compared to 2.16 million tons during the same period in 2024 and 3.32 million tons in 2023. These figures clearly indicate that Indian fertilizer companies are importing increasingly less DAP. Consequently, India's demand for DAP imports remains consistently robust. Data shows that from the onset of the monsoon season in April 2025 through the end of July that year, India's cumulative DAP imports reached 1.98 million tons, exceeding the average for the same period over the past three years by 12%. Notably, India's DAP imports surged to 1.01 million tons in July 2025, marking the highest monthly delivery volume since June 2023. Based on the latest data, India's total DAP imports for the full year 2025 are projected to reach 6.43 million tons, significantly exceeding the 2022–2024 average of 5.91 million tons.

Notably, India has consistently prioritized boosting domestic production alongside increased procurement to ensure stable fertilizer supply. Data from India's Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers indicates domestic urea production grew from 2.2715 million tons in FY 2013/2014 to 3.0667 million tons in FY 2024/2025—a 35% increase over a decade. During the same period, DAP and compound fertilizer production rose by 44%, significantly boosting self-sufficiency. India has also actively secured critical imports through diplomatic negotiations and long-term agreements: In July 2025, major Indian importers signed a five-year phosphate procurement agreement with Saudi Arabia for 3.1 million tons annually, primarily diammonium phosphate (DAP) and including superphosphate.

Furthermore, to ensure stable urea supply while reducing India's dependence on volatile global prices, In December 2025, India Potash Limited (IPL), Rashtriya Chemicals and Fertilizers Limited (RCF), National Fertilizers Limited (NFL), and Russian fertilizer producer UralChem agreed to establish a joint venture to build a urea plant in Russia with an annual capacity of 1.8 to 2 million tons.

United States: Frequent Tariff Policy Shifts

Year-End Lifting of Four-Year Sanctions on Belarusian Potash

In recent years, U.S. farmers have grappled with rising input costs stemming from various tariff sanctions. After experiencing both tariff impositions and exemptions in 2025, the U.S. first announced plans in December 2025 to impose tariffs on Canadian fertilizers, reigniting concerns among American farmers. Canada is the largest supplier of potash to the U.S. However, due to tariff exemption provisions under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), Canadian exports to the U.S. have largely remained unaffected to date. Subsequently, the U.S. lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash imports, which had been in place since December 2021, using this as leverage in tariff negotiations with Canada.

On November 14, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order announcing revisions to reciprocal tariffs, eliminating duties on multiple key fertilizers including urea, ammonium nitrate, urea ammonium nitrate liquid fertilizer, ammonium sulfate, potash, superphosphate, diammonium phosphate, and monoammonium phosphate.

On December 8, 2025, during a speech, Trump hinted at the possibility of imposing new tariffs on Canadian fertilizers.

On December 13, 2025, the United States lifted sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizers. This signaled the resumption of potash trade between the United States and Belarus after nearly four years of interruption.

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