In 2025, China's monoammonium phosphate market navigated a complex interplay of high production costs, policy adjustments, and fluctuating demand, exhibiting overall characteristics of “high-level volatility and structural divergence.” Persistently rising raw material costs laid the foundation for upward-shifting price benchmarks, while the phased relaxation of export policies and seasonal fluctuations in domestic demand jointly shaped the year's high-volatility market rhythm.

The first quarter followed a pattern of “initial decline followed by recovery.” At the beginning of the year, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, downstream compound fertilizer enterprises generally maintained low operating rates, procurement activities slowed, and market trading activity was subdued. Entering March, demand steadily released as spring plowing fertilizer preparation work gradually commenced. Concurrently, raw material support intensified: phosphate rock prices remained firm due to structural supply constraints, while sulfur prices surged significantly year-on-year, driven by international market dynamics. Fueled by both demand recovery and cost pressures, MAP prices climbed out of their trough, embarking on a steady upward trajectory that set a bullish tone for the year.

In the second quarter, the market extended its upward trend, buoyed by favorable policies and export demand. April saw sustained release of spring plowing fertilizer demand, coupled with gradually clarified export policy directions, boosting market confidence. Starting in May, the export window period opened, prompting producers to actively engage with international markets and prepare export orders. Mid-May witnessed another sharp surge in sulfur prices, becoming the core driver behind the rapid rise in MAP prices. In June, the export-driven effect fully materialized, with MAP exports reaching 165,600 metric tons that month—a significant month-on-month increase. The surge in exports effectively alleviated domestic pressure, optimized the market supply-demand structure, and supported prices at elevated levels.

The third quarter saw the market enter a phase of consolidation at high levels. From July to August, summer fertilizer demand remained stable, while the export market continued its robust momentum. August exports surged to an annual peak of 440,700 tons, a 28.06% month-on-month increase, with international markets serving as a crucial outlet for capacity utilization. Regarding raw material costs, phosphate rock prices remained elevated, while sulfur prices, though retreating from their peak, still hovered near historically high levels, maintaining solid production cost support. However, persistently high prices steadily eroded industry margins, pushing small and medium-sized producers reliant on fully purchased raw materials to the brink of losses. Downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers showed limited tolerance for elevated raw material costs, largely maintaining a just-in-time procurement strategy. The market thus entered a state of “high-price stalemate,” lacking sufficient momentum for either upward or downward movement.

In the fourth quarter, cost pressures drove a strong price surge. By October, domestic agricultural demand weakened significantly as the autumn fertilizer season concluded. Concurrently, the export window closed at the end of September, shifting corporate sales focus back to the domestic market. However, following the National Day holiday, raw material prices for sulfur and sulfuric acid surged again, further elevating production costs. This provided rigid support at the market price floor, gradually pushing low-end supplies out of the market. In November, surging sulfur prices drove up costs, improving market sentiment. On the 12th, the official guidance price was released: 55% powder ex-factory in Central China at 3,650 yuan/ton, with major manufacturers following suit. Supply tightness and cost support jointly drove the market price center to continue shifting upward. In December, consecutive meetings on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices were held, clarifying the commitment to guarantee stable fertilizer supply for spring plowing. This somewhat eased market bullish sentiment. Although raw material prices remained elevated, the cost-driven effect weakened. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises maintained procurement based on demand, and winter stockpiling progressed cautiously, keeping market transactions stable.

Looking back at 2025, costs remained the core theme throughout the year. Persistently high prices for raw materials like sulfur and phosphate rock established a rigid floor for market pricing. Policy served as the key variable regulating market rhythm and volatility, with export quota management and mandatory inspection systems directly impacting supply-demand balance. Ultimately, the actual strength and price acceptance of end-user demand—particularly agricultural demand—defined the ceiling for price increases.

Looking ahead to 2026, the underlying logic driving market dynamics is expected to persist and evolve. First, cost pressures will remain the fundamental driver. Amid global energy transition and export policies in resource-rich nations, structural supply constraints for raw materials like sulfur are unlikely to ease quickly. International prices will continue fluctuating at elevated levels, keeping domestic monoammonium phosphate production costs elevated for an extended period. Second, the impact of policy variables will become more precise and dynamic. While the overarching policy of ensuring fertilizer supply and stabilizing prices will remain unchanged, the specific implementation of export control measures—such as the duration of mandatory inspections and quota allocation mechanisms—may undergo flexible adjustments based on domestic supply-demand dynamics, food security conditions, and the international trade environment. This will serve as a core exogenous variable influencing short-term market sentiment and price fluctuations. Third, demand structures will undergo profound transformation. Against the backdrop of high-quality agricultural development and the ongoing “Zero Growth in Fertilizer Use” initiative, the direct application of traditional single-nutrient fertilizers in agriculture will continue to be curtailed. It is projected that the domestic monoammonium phosphate market will maintain a high-level consolidation pattern through 2026, navigating the interplay of elevated costs, policy variables, and demand fluctuations.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on January 14th, the benchmark price of monoammonium phosphate according to SunSirs was 3846.67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.17% compared to the beginning of the month (3853.33 RMB/ton).

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