Price trend

According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, from February 2nd to February 9th, 2026, the domestic toluene market saw a slight decline, with prices falling from 5,560 RMB/ton to 5,410 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.7%. This period saw the market consolidate after a period of high prices, driven by weakening cost support, ample supply in certain regions, downstream pre-holiday stockpiling, and a cooling of the buying frenzy. The pressure to maintain high prices increased, resulting in an overall weak trading range.

Market analysis

Cost Side: 

According to the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, international crude oil prices fluctuated and declined during this period. Geopolitical premiums gradually subsided, market expectations for demand turned cautious, and coupled with the impact of some macroeconomic data, the center of oil prices shifted slightly downward, resulting in a temporary weakening of cost support for the toluene market. Domestic crude oil futures followed the fluctuations of the international market, with the support at previous high levels waning, and market sentiment turning cautious. Naphtha prices also trended weakly, and the overall upward momentum of the aromatics industry chain's cost side was insufficient. The toluene market lacked sustained upward momentum on the cost side, and coupled with increased market expectations for further oil price fluctuations, the bullish sentiment in the toluene market was significantly suppressed, providing room for price correction. As of February 6, the settlement price of the March contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $63.55 per barrel. The settlement price of the April contract for Brent crude oil futures was $68.05 per barrel.

Supply Side:

Domestic toluene supply was generally tight this cycle, with significant regional differences due to variations in plant operation and delivery conditions, becoming the core support for price increases. In Shandong, the tight balance of supply persisted, providing the strongest impetus for price increases. Delayed restart of Xinyue Chemical's plant, shutdown for maintenance at Youtai Technology, Huaxing Petrochemical's focus on self-use of toluene, and a decrease in regional circulation at Yulong Petrochemical all contributed to a continued contraction in supply. Refinery auction premiums became the norm, actively pushing up prices, pushing prices above 5000 RMB/ton, with active trading. In Jiangsu, declining shipments to warehouses led to tight spot supply, coupled with the positive impact of rising crude oil and aromatics prices, prompting holders to actively support prices. Frequent paper trading and the opening of export arbitrage windows further strengthened the reluctance to sell, causing prices to follow Shandong's lead. Guangdong experienced a "tight then loose" trend. Delayed shipments initially drove up prices due to destocking, while subsequent shipments brought downward pressure on prices. Furthermore, major domestic refineries maintained stable operations but prioritized self-use.

Sinopec's toluene plants were operating normally, with stable production. Most of the product was for internal use, and sales were stable. As of February 9th, the price quoted by the East China branch was 5,500 RMB/ton, the North China branch 5,400 RMB/ton, the South China branch 5,500 RMB/ton, and the Central China branch 5,350 RMB/ton.

Demand side:

This period, downstream demand for toluene remained stable overall, but buyers were cautious about further price increases. With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream factories were gradually closing for holidays, and pre-holiday stockpiling was largely complete, leading to weaker demand and insufficient support for the toluene market. PX prices eased slightly, and the price difference between domestic and international PX markets in Asia narrowed. Major domestic plants such as Rongsheng and Hengli operated stably, with stable production and sales, but their impact on toluene prices weakened. Other downstream industries, such as solvents and fine chemicals, mainly focused on replenishing inventory for immediate needs, resulting in a generally weak market atmosphere. Downstream acceptance of high-priced goods decreased, further limiting the upward potential of toluene prices.

According to data from the SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, Sinopec Sales Company is uniformly pricing PX at 7,650 RMB/ton in East China, North China, and South China. Major plants such as Rongsheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical were operating stably, with smooth production and sales. As of February 6th, the closing price of PX in the Asian market was $871-873/ton FOB Korea and $896-898/ton CFR China.

Market outlook:

Crude oil prices remained volatile and uncertain, with cost support relatively stable but unlikely to provide a strong boost. Regional supply differentiation continued, with Shandong and Jiangsu still offering some support, while Guangdong faced significant pressure from incoming shipments. Demand weakened further as the Spring Festival approaches, with downstream procurement mainly focused on last-minute needs. The toluene market is expected to maintain a weaker, range-bound trading pattern next week. Key factors to watch include crude oil price movements, price adjustments by major refineries, plant operations in Shandong, and the impact of shipments arriving in South China on the market.

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