In 2025, the global copper concentrate market will be characterized by intensifying supply disruptions, a tight supply-demand balance, and a shift in the price center upward. Production accidents at overseas mines, policy adjustments, and geopolitical risks have combined to slow global output growth. Meanwhile, expanded smelting capacity in major consumer nations like China has boosted raw material demand, driving copper concentrate imports to record highs. The LME copper average price surpassed $10,000 per ton, while processing fees plummeted to historic lows, triggering profound industry restructuring.
Frequent Disruptions
Global Copper Concentrate Supply Growth Under Pressure
Production-wise, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), global copper concentrate output reached 28.5 million tons in 2025, marking a 3.3% year-on-year increase. This growth rate slowed by 1.2 percentage points compared to 2024. Core producing nations exhibit a “stable-to-declining” trend. Chile, the world's largest copper producer, will maintain refined copper output at 5.5 million tons in 2025—unchanged from 2024—primarily due to a 55,000-ton reduction caused by water supply constraints at the Collahuasi mine and an underground incident at the El Teniente mine. Peru's refined copper output will grow by 6.12% year-on-year, driven by capacity expansion at mines like Torromacho. China's domestic output steadily increased, with the first phase of the Julong Copper Mine project producing 190,000 tons of copper annually, bolstering domestic raw material supply.
Supply disruptions intensified, impacting market expectations. In 2025, global copper concentrate supply faced multiple major disruptions, directly exacerbating shortage expectations. In Q1 2025, Indonesia formally implemented a 7.5% export tariff on copper concentrate, affecting key players like Freeport and Ammann Mining and increasing export costs. Copper mines in northern Chile halted production due to grid failures, impacting approximately 30,000 tons of monthly output. In Q2 2025, the Kamoa copper mine in the Democratic Republic of the Congo suffered flood damage to underground facilities caused by an earthquake, reducing annual output by about 80,000 tons. In Q3 2025, Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine suspended operations for 45 days due to underground passages blocked by wet soil, reducing output by approximately 60,000 tons. Additionally, Panama's Cobre Panama mine (annual capacity 350,000 tons) remained idle, while Glencore's Collahuasi mine cut production by 55,000 tons due to water supply issues, further tightening global supply.
Processing fees hit historic lows, plunging smelters into cost crises. Supply tightness directly manifests in copper concentrate processing fees (TC/RC). By 2025, long-term processing fees contracted between overseas mines and Chinese smelters dropped to $21.25/ton, a steep 80% decline from 2024 levels. The spot market faced even greater challenges, with the comprehensive processing fee for 26% clean copper concentrate plunging to a record low of -$46.40 per dry ton—the first instance of negative processing fees in history. By late 2025, Chile's Antofagasta reached a 2026 long-term agreement with China's leading smelters, setting the processing fee benchmark at $0 per ton, marking the industry's entry into the “zero processing fee era.” The plunge in processing fees drastically compressed smelter profits, compelling the industry to initiate “anti-internal competition” measures.
China's copper concentrate imports show significant growth
Supply chain restructuring accelerates
In 2025, global copper concentrate trade patterns were significantly impacted by policy and geopolitical risks. Following Indonesia's export tariff hikes, its copper concentrate exports declined by 3.2% year-on-year, with some capacity redirected to domestic smelters. Anticipated U.S. tariffs on copper products triggered arbitrage trading between COMEX and LME markets, causing structural shifts in global copper inventories with U.S. stocks rising 15% year-on-year. The EU's consideration of a 30% tariff on scrap metal exports promotes regional copper recycling, indirectly affecting refined copper concentrate import demand. Additionally, the shutdown of Panama's Cobre Panama mine created a gap in the global supply chain. Countries like China and India increased their reliance on imports from Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi mine, with its exports to China growing by 12% year-on-year in 2025.
Data from China's General Administration of Customs shows that in 2025, China imported a cumulative total of 30.365 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, marking a 7.8% year-on-year increase. Import records were broken three times in April, August, and December 2025, with April imports reaching a historic peak of 2.924 million physical tons.
The import growth was primarily driven by domestic smelting capacity expansion. Although China added significant new copper smelting capacity in 2025, its raw material self-sufficiency rate remained below 30%, with external dependence consistently exceeding 70%. In terms of import sources, South America remained the core supplier region, with Chile and Peru collectively accounting for 67% of imports. Specifically, China imported 9.64 million physical tons of copper raw materials from Chile, a year-on-year increase of 4.39%; 7.42 million physical tons from Peru, a year-on-year increase of 6.12%; and 11.49 million physical tons from other countries, a year-on-year increase of 9.22%, demonstrating a clear trend toward diversification of import sources.
In other developments, in February 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) and 10 other departments jointly issued the Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Copper Industry (2025-2027). This plan explicitly sets targets to increase domestic copper ore reserves by 5% to 10% and curb illegal smelting capacity by 2027. By the end of 2025, the 16 core enterprises of the China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group (CSPT) reached a consensus to proactively reduce copper smelting capacity utilization by over 10% in 2026, affecting more than 900,000 tons of capacity, thereby alleviating supply-demand imbalances.
Copper Concentrate Supply-Demand Gap May Emerge
Price Center Continues to Shift Upward
Supply Increases Concentrated in Release. In 2026, global copper concentrate supply will see structural growth, with total output projected to reach 29.2 million tons, a 2.5% year-on-year increase. Core growth will come from three major sources: First, new projects coming online. Zijin Mining's Kamoa-Kakula Phase III copper mine (annual capacity: 600,000 tons) and China's Jiu Long Phase II copper mine (annual capacity: 300,000–350,000 tons) will contribute 105,000 tons and 70,000 tons of incremental supply, respectively. Notably, Jiu Long Phase II commenced operations in January 2026, with annual copper output projected at 300,000 tons. Second, restarted projects will release capacity. Panama's Cobre Panama copper mine is expected to resume operations mid-year, potentially adding 150,000 tons of capacity. Glencore's Collahuasi copper mine, with its water supply issues resolved, is anticipated to restore production to normal levels. Third, expansion of existing mines. Mongolia's Oyu Tolgoi copper mine is steadily increasing output, projected to contribute an additional 120,000 tons in 2026. Russia's Udokan and Malmyzh projects combined will add 138,000 tons.
Strong demand-side support. Global copper concentrate demand is projected to reach 29.2–29.4 million metric tons in 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.8%–3.5%. Key drivers include: First, increased smelting capacity. Despite China's voluntary production cut of 900,000 metric tons, new compliant capacity additions still amount to 1.5 million metric tons. Overseas smelters like Altonorte resuming operations will also boost raw material demand. Second, copper consumption growth in emerging sectors. Grid upgrades, energy storage, and AI infrastructure will drive refined copper demand, indirectly boosting copper concentrate consumption, with an estimated 500,000-ton increase in new demand. Third, constrained scrap copper supply. EU export tariff policies may reduce global scrap copper flows by 10%, further shifting demand toward copper concentrate substitutes. Comprehensive projections indicate a global copper concentrate supply-demand gap of approximately 200,000 tons in 2026, providing price support.
The price center is expected to shift upward. The LME copper price center in 2026 is projected to remain between $10,800 and $12,000 per ton, representing an 8% to 20% increase from 2025. Core supporting factors include: a weaker U.S. dollar amid the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle, boosting commodity valuations; persistent supply-demand gaps with inventories at historical lows; and rising mine production costs, which underpin copper price floors. However, three major risks warrant vigilance: lower-than-expected copper demand from AI infrastructure could reduce incremental demand by 150,000 tons; an unexpectedly sharp downturn in the real estate sector could dampen traditional copper consumption; and escalating geopolitical conflicts may disrupt supply from South American and African mines. Additionally, strict enforcement of the CSPT production cut agreement could alleviate the slump in processing fees, though it is unlikely to alter the tight supply-demand balance in the short term.
Looking ahead to 2026, the global copper concentrate market is projected to see simultaneous supply expansion and steady demand growth. Despite new and restarted projects, the supply-demand gap may widen amid loose liquidity, low inventories, and emerging sector demand, driving prices upward. However, vigilance is needed regarding demand-side risks from AI and real estate sectors, as well as geopolitical disruptions to supply. The industry should monitor progress on key project resumptions and policy impacts. Smelters need to optimize procurement and risk management, while mining companies can seize pricing opportunities to expand capacity, collectively addressing structural challenges.
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