Price trend
According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, the average domestic BDO price remains at 7,542 RMB/ton from September 12th to 19th, a 2.22% month-on-month decrease and a 0.75% year-on-year decline. The domestic BDO market remains stable, with some plants undergoing maintenance or reducing production, resulting in reduced supply and a loss-making industry. Downstream suppliers maintain their contract, but spot purchases are low due to cost pressures. The supply and demand are in a game of negotiation, and the market focus is stable.
The recent silicon market saw a narrow upward trend
On the supply side, Wuheng Chemical's Phase I facility is shut down for maintenance, and Heimao and Hengli plants are operating at reduced capacity. This has reduced overall industry capacity utilization and reduced supply. Furthermore, the industry has been experiencing long-term losses. Some factories intend to reduce their October sales policies, while others are taking a wait-and-see approach. This suggests positive factors are expected from BDO supply.
Statistics on the operation of equipment of some production enterprises:
|
Region |
Device dynamics |
|
Xinjiang Lanshan Tunhe |
The first phase will be parked on August 27, 2024. The second and third phases are in stable operation |
|
Shaanxi Heimao |
It was stopped on August 28 and restarted on September 1, with a current load of 70% |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the plant is stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases are operating normally |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The first phase will be parked on the evening of August 16; The second phase of 140,000 tons is in stable operation |
|
Inner Mongolia Junzheng |
The load is 70% |
|
Inner Mongolia Dongjing Biotechnology |
In the first phase of parking, the load of the second phase is 70% |
|
Wuheng chemistry |
The first phase will be overhauled for 15 days on September 14; The load of the second phase is 60%, and the deposit is expected to be negative |
|
Sinopec Great Wall Energy |
Two sets of BDO units with a capacity of 100,000 tons/year are currently operating stably |
On the cost side, the domestic calcium carbide market continues its upward trend, with manufacturers shipping smoothly and overall supply remaining tight. Regarding methanol, the domestic methanol market remains weak. As of 10:00 AM on September 19th, the reference price of methanol in Taicang was 2,270 RMB/ton. While calcium carbide prices have risen, methanol prices have weakened, resulting in mixed results for BDO.
On the demand side, downstream PTMEG production has declined slightly, while capacity utilization in sectors like PBAT has increased, resulting in no significant change in raw material consumption. With the settlement period approaching, downstream contract orders are being followed up or inventories are being worked off, leading to subdued market activity. Furthermore, pressure on costs has led to a lack of spot demand. BDO demand also provides negative factors for the market.
Market outlook
Some load-reducing facilities will increase their capacity, leading to a slight increase in BDO supply. Furthermore, the industry continues to suffer losses, leading suppliers to reduce sales to support the market. Downstream suppliers are maintaining contracts or working through inventory. BDO analysts of SunSirs predict that both supply and demand in the BDO market will increase, and the domestic BDO market will remain stagnant.
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