On September 29th, with the information of Indonesian President Prabowo ordering the crackdown on illegal tin mines leakage, tin prices moved up to 280,000 RMB/ton after the National Day holiday. In the short term, the slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State has already led to a tight supply of ore, and Indonesia's crack down on illegal tin mining will further exacerbate the shortage of tin mine supply. In addition, the continuous decline of tin stocks at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the improvement of the macro atmosphere are expected to push tin prices to break through 285,000 RMB/ton.

The supply of ore is becoming more tense.

At present, the resumption of tin concentrate production in the Wa State of Myanmar is still slow, resulting in a continuous decline in the import volume of tin concentrate in China. According to the data published by the Chinese Customs and the data calculated by Antaike, in September this year, the physical import volume of tin concentrate in China was 87,140 tons, which was equivalent to 30,271 tons of metal, a decrease of 29.8% month-on-month and a decrease of 17.7% year-on-year. Among them, the import volume from African countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria decreased by 34.2% to 14,760 tons; the import volume from Australia decreased by 45.3% to 3,400 tons. According to statistics, in the first three quarters of this year, China imported a total of 250,000 tons of tin concentrate physically, which was equivalent to 38,000 tons of metal, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year.

Data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) shows that in 2024, Indonesia's tin mine production was about 50,000 tons, and the global share of tin concentrate production was about 16.7%. Indonesia is the world's second-largest producer of tin concentrate. Indonesia's efforts to combat illegal mining activities will further impact the global supply of tin mines.

The supply of tin concentrate from Myanmar and Indonesia has been tight, resulting in the processing fee for tin concentrate in China continuing to be at a low level. According to SMM data, as of October 24, the processing fees for tin concentrate in Yunnan and Jiangxi were 12,000 RMB/ton and 8,000 RMB/ton, respectively. From the trend, at present, the processing fee continues to be at the lowest level in the past three years, reflecting the current tight supply of tin mines in China, which supports the tin price.

In terms of refined tin production, the statistical results of the output of 18 domestic refined tin smelters (smelting production capacity of more than 310,000 tons, covering 98% of the total capacity) by Antaike showed that in September, the total output of refined tin from the above enterprises was 14,044 tons, a decrease of 18.1% compared to the previous month and an increase of 16.6% year-on-year. From January to September, domestic sample enterprises produced a total of 153,000 tons of refined tin, an increase of 6.9% year-on-year. In September, due to the shutdown and maintenance of two large smelters, the production of refined tin decreased significantly.

The overall consumption of refined tin has performed reasonably well.

The tin chemical field accounts for about 20% of the total consumption of refined tin. Refined tin is an important raw material for the production of PVC, which is closely related to the real estate industry. From the latest real estate data, from January to September, the completed housing area was 311.29 million square meters, a decrease of 15.3%. Among them, the completed residential area was 222.28 million square meters, a decrease of 17.1%. The performance of the real estate market is generally average, which is a negative factor for PVC consumption and has a limited effect on the demand for refined tin.

The solder material field accounts for about 40% of the total consumption of refined tin. Solder materials are widely used in the production of electronic components, which are applied in consumer electronics, computers, automobiles and other industries. In terms of electronic components, with the gradual recovery of the semiconductor industry, related consumption is expected to be boosted. In terms of automobiles, this year, the automobile exchange policy has been extended, which has made the automobile market perform well. From January to September, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles in China were 24.0475 million and 24.3630 million, respectively, an increase of 10.9% and 12.9% year-on-year. Among them, the performance of new energy vehicles is still excellent. From January to September, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles were 10.962 million and 11.2276 million, respectively, an increase of 29.7% and 34.95% year-on-year. In addition, the booming development of the photovoltaic industry has also driven the demand for solder materials. SMM data shows that in September, the output of photovoltaic components in China was 49.9GW, an increase of 1.63% year-on-year. The booming development of the new energy industry has played a role in boosting the consumption of refined tin.

In terms of demand, at present, the consumption of tin chemical products is flat, but the consumption of tin solder is good. Since the consumption of tin solder accounts for more than that of tin chemical products, the overall consumption of refined tin is still acceptable at present.

From the inventory perspective, as of October 24th, the tin inventory at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 5,567 tons, which is at the lowest level in the past three years. Currently, the inventory continues to decline, indicating that the current supply and demand fundamentals for tin are relatively good.

In addition, overseas stockpiles are also at a low level. As of October 24, the LME tin stock was 2,750 tons, which is the second lowest level in the past 5 years.

To sum up, the slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State, the tension in tin mine supply, the Indonesian government's cracking down on illegal mining, and the global tin mine shortage have all contributed to the current tin market situation. The supply of tin ore still falling short of demand, which is the main factor supporting tin prices. Stockpiles are steadily declining, reflecting the current tin fundamentals are still acceptable. Recent macroeconomic positives are more obvious, and tin prices are expected to break through the 285,000 RMB/tonne level in the short term.

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