Tin price trends in 2025

According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs, the price of 1# tin ingot in East China was 245,960 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year and 332,710 RMB/ton at the end of the year. The price increased by 35.27% throughout the year.

In 2025, tin prices followED an overall N-shaped trend. Prices fluctuated upwards in the first quarter, reaching around 280,000 RMB/ton by March 22nd, followed by a rapid correction until April 15th when they fall below 260,000 RMB/ton. After bottoming out, prices rebounded and fluctuated upwards, breaking through 300,000 RMB/ton and continuing to rise towards the end of the year. The annual price range was between 242,000 RMB/ton and 332,000 RMB/ton, with the market characterized by "constrained supply and a compelling demand story" throughout the year.

Review of factors influencing tin prices in 2025

Supply side: Widespread tension and continuous disruptions

Myanmar's Wa State halted production: Production had been continuously delayed since the mining ban in 2023, leading to a significant decrease in China's tin ore imports.

Geopolitical conflict: Armed conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo led to a temporary shutdown of major mining areas in Africa.

Rising costs: The shortage of raw materials had driven smelting and processing fees to their lowest level in nearly six years, squeezing profit margins and leading some smelters to reduce production.

Demand side: differentiation of new and old driving forces

Weak traditional demand: Orders in traditional sectors such as consumer electronics and home appliances were sluggish, with purchases mainly driven by essential needs.

Emerging demands provided a long-term growth story: global semiconductor sales growth, rapid growth in AI servers, and the development of photovoltaics and new energy vehicles provided long-term support for tin demand.

Inventory and Macroeconomics: Low Inventory and Macroeconomic Resonance

Globally, inventories were low: Inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the LME were at historically low levels, exacerbating supply vulnerabilities.

Macroeconomic factors provided a boost: In late November 2025, expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, coupled with concerns about the conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo, propelled Shanghai tin prices to a three-and-a-half-year high.

Tin price forecast for 2026

Looking ahead to 2026, the market consensus is that supply constraints will ease somewhat, but the supply-demand gap and low inventory levels will continue to support historically high prices, with the overall trend expected to be one of "high-level volatility."

2026 Supply Recovery Forecast

An overview of new and expanded tin mining capacity globally from 2026 onwards.

It is estimated that global tin mine production capacity will increase by approximately 24,000 tons in 2026 due to new projects and expansions. The increase from overseas sources will mainly come from the Wa State of Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo, totaling an estimated 16,500 tons, while other new and expanded capacities are expected to add another 4,400 tons. In China, the ramp-up of production at Yinman Mining and the expected commissioning of the Vilasto project in August will contribute an estimated 3,000 tons. In summary, the total increase in global tin mine production in 2026 is expected to be approximately 24,000 tons, with the resumption of production in the Wa State of Myanmar being the main source of this increase.

Myanmar's production recovery is expected to accelerate

According to public reports, the southwest monsoon withdrew from Myanmar in mid-October 2025, marking the end of the rainy season and the beginning of early winter. The significant increase in customs clearance data at the Menglian port in November suggested that the problems caused by the rainy season and equipment issues had been largely resolved, and production is expected to accelerate. A year-on-year increase of 15,000 metric tons of metal is projected for 2026.

Mining supply situation in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Nigeria.

Demand resilience in 2026

Supporting factors: The high-end development of semiconductors driven by AI computing power and the green energy transition (photovoltaics, new energy vehicles) are clear drivers of medium-to-long-term demand growth. Tin demand is expected to continue to rise.

Pressure points: In the first quarter of 2026, traditional consumer sectors will enter their off-season. Global smartphone shipments may see a slight decrease, photovoltaic module production will decline quarter-on-quarter, and high tin prices will also suppress downstream inventory replenishment intentions.

Inventory and cost structure provide underlying support: Global visible inventories are expected to remain low. At the same time, declining global tin ore grades and rising exploration costs provide a solid long-term floor for tin prices.

Overall, tin prices in 2026 will be influenced by the interplay between "supply recovery" and "demand resilience/disruption risks." By 2026, the global tin market is likely to face a supply deficit. The key focus of the current market is on potential disruptions to overseas mine supply and the verification of actual demand. Against this backdrop, the expected trading range for the Shanghai tin index is approximately between 260,000 RMB/ton and 390,000 RMB/ton.

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