From November 3rd to 4th, the 8th China Enterprise Forum was held in Beijing. At the main forum, Zhang Yu Zhao, Director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) of the State Council, stated that traditional industries should be optimized and upgraded, emerging industries and future industries should be cultivated and expanded according to local conditions, and efforts should be made to open up a "second growth curve". The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission has repeatedly emphasized that "efforts should be made to start a 'second growth curve' for enterprises". Mining enterprises, especially state-owned mining enterprises, as the core force for national mineral security and the leader of industry transformation, are not only in line with their own sustainable growth needs, but also bear the important mission of serving national strategies and promoting industry upgrading.

01 The context of the "second curve" for mining company development

First, The Origin and Definition of the Second Curve

The "Second curve" theory, proposed by the British Charles Handy, posits that to achieve sustainable growth, one must begin developing the Second curve (new business) before the First curve (existing business) peaks, ensuring that growth continues when the First curve declines. He also emphasized that the Second curve is not a simple continuation of the First curve but a fundamental shift that may require a brand-new mindset, organizational structure, and capabilities.

Second, The Dilemma of the "First Curve" for Mining Companies

At present, the world is experiencing unprecedented changes in a century, and the international situation is turbulent and complex, bringing unprecedented challenges and opportunities to the business environment of enterprises. As resource-dependent enterprises, mining enterprises are facing a "quadruple dilemma". First, the increase in resource reserves is weak. According to the "Global Mining Development Report 2025" released by the International Mining Research Center of the China Geological Survey Bureau, since 2024, the exploration investment and drilling activities of major solid mineral resources in the world have continued to decrease. In 2024, the exploration investment was US $124.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%. The demand for mineral resources is increasing, and the supply and demand of some mineral species are in a tight balance. Second, the prices of mineral products fluctuate periodically, the prices of traditional energy mineral products are under pressure to decline, the prices of bulk mineral products are more volatile, and the prices of strategic emerging mineral products continue to decline. The prices of agricultural mineral products first declined and then increased. Third, the constraints on environmental protection and carbon emissions are becoming stricter. China's "double carbon" goal, which needs to achieve carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060, poses a severe challenge to traditional high-energy consumption and high-emission mining enterprises. Fourth, technological changes are impacting traditional mining. The global mining industry is accelerating its transformation towards greening and intelligence, and the trend of full-industry chain integration is becoming apparent. New technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and the Internet of Things are reshaping the production methods and management models of the mining industry.

02 The significance of the "second curve" for the development of mining enterprises

First, Ensure the security of national energy and resources

The development of the "second curve" by mining enterprises can effectively ensure the autonomy and control of key minerals in China, and solve the "bottleneck" risk. Against the backdrop of a high degree of dependence on foreign iron, cobalt, nickel, manganese and other mineral products, the development of the "second curve" can optimize the structure of China's mineral resources consumption, reduce the dependence on a single mineral, directly strengthen the resilience of the mineral supply chain, and reduce the risk of supply disruption caused by geopolitical shocks. As the core force for the integration of China's metal mineral resources, China Minmetals has arranged 38 mines at home and abroad (including 15 overseas mines) in Asia, Oceania, South America and Africa, controlling world-class high-quality mines such as the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru, the Dugald River zinc mine in Australia, Ramu Nickel-Cobalt Mine in Papua New Guinea, and the Shizhuanyuan mine in Hunan, forming a diversified matrix of mineral products covering copper, lead, zinc, nickel, tungsten, antimony, molybdenum, iron, manganese, chromium and other non-ferrous and ferrous metals, and gradually building a world-class mineral resource portfolio of "large scale, long life, low cost". China Minmetals has established an efficient mine construction and operation system and strengthened its control and efficient development of global mineral resources through the development of the "second curve".

Second, Better enhance the efficiency and vitality of business operations

Mining enterprises often rely on a single mineral (such as coal, iron ore), making them vulnerable to cyclical fluctuations and downward price pressures. Developing a "second curve" can shift the company's revenue structure from "single dependence" to "multiple pillars of support". Relying on this model, companies can avoid the impact of traditional mineral price fluctuations on their performance. China Baowu, the world's top steelmaker, is actively transforming into a comprehensive industrial group based on steel, creating incremental value through technology and services. Its new business segments have significantly increased their revenue and profit contributions. The company has now entered the new material field, not only producing ordinary steel but also vigorously developing high-performance metal materials, carbon fibers, lightweight materials, etc., to meet the needs of high-end manufacturing such as aerospace and new energy vehicles. China Baowu has achieved business diversification and improved corporate efficiency through the development of a "second curve", injecting sustainable growth momentum into the development of the enterprise.

Third, Better achieve the "double carbon" goals and sustainable development

In order to achieve the "double carbon" goals and the requirements for the sustainable development of enterprises, it is imperative for mining enterprises to develop a "second curve". By developing clean energy substitutes and green mining technologies, it is possible to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality more quickly, while also better promoting the recycling of resources, reducing the impact on the environment. The aluminum industry is a more typical resource and energy-intensive industry in the mining industry, with great pressure to green. As the only aluminum company in the world with a complete industrial chain of "bauxite-alumina-electrolytic aluminum-aluminum alloy", China Aluminum Corporation has also faced problems such as high unit energy consumption of electrolytic aluminum and difficult treatment of solid waste such as red mud. China Aluminum Corporation has transformed environmental protection pressure into technological competitiveness, promoted deep energy-saving technology of aluminum electrolysis and comprehensive utilization technology of red mud, and promoted the upgrading and transformation of industrial furnaces, with the proportion of clean energy use continues to improve. China Aluminum Corporation has built a green and low-carbon industrial ecology through the development of the "second curve", meeting the needs of industrial upgrading under the "double carbon" goals.

03 Proposal for the Development of the "Second Curve" for Mining Enterprises

First, balance the "first curve" with the "second curve".The "second curve" is not a negation of the "first curve", but an extension and supplement. The "second curve" needs to be initiated when the "first curve" is still in the rising stage, with the cash flow of the "first curve" supporting the development of new businesses, to avoid a "gap between old and new businesses". Mining enterprises need to combine their own resource endowments and main businesses, and avoid blindly chasing new businesses. At the same time, the development concept of mining enterprises needs to transform from "single mineral miner" to "industrial chain integrator". When extending upstream, focus on controlling the exploration and mining of core resources, and avoid raw material dependence; when expanding downstream, focus on deep processing of minerals and advanced material manufacturing, to enhance product added value.

Second, it is important to focus on technological innovation and system construction.The essence of the second curve's competitiveness is innovation, and mining enterprises need to continuously enhance their innovation capabilities, develop new productive forces according to local conditions, and strive to build a modern industrial system. A single mining enterprise may find it difficult to cover all fields, and it is necessary to quickly make up for shortcomings through "industry-academia-research cooperation" and other means, strengthen cooperation with universities and research institutes, and jointly tackle "bottleneck" technologies in the mining industry, such as lithium extraction from salt lakes, comprehensive utilization of gangue, and intelligent mine construction. At the same time, deepening the synergy of the industrial chain, mining enterprises can strengthen cooperation with application-end enterprises such as battery manufacturers and new energy vehicle manufacturers, and build a closed-loop ecosystem of "mining-process processing-application-recycling", enhancing the resilience of the industrial chain to risks.

Third, control the international situation and market risks.The development of the "second curve" by mining enterprises requires close attention to policy changes and geopolitical risks. The mining industry is greatly affected by policies, especially when engaging in international mining cooperation, it is necessary to enhance risk prevention awareness (such as considering the business environment of resource countries, and giving priority to countries that jointly build the "Belt and Road"), and through "local operation", to reduce investment risks. At the same time, the development of the "second curve" by mining enterprises needs to run through the concept of sustainable development and high-quality development in the whole process, and avoid the problem of "emphasizing growth and neglecting compliance".

Driven by the global energy transition and the concept of sustainable development, mining enterprises are facing historical opportunities and challenges to transform from traditional resource extraction and development to intelligent and green directions. Developing a "second curve" is an important way for mining enterprises to seek new growth points, effectively solve the dilemma of industry development, and achieve their own high-quality development.

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