Price trend
According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, domestic BDO prices remained at 8,735 RMB/ton from October 13th to 17th, a 1.02% month-on-month decrease and a 1.67% year-on-year increase. Maintenance, catalyst replacements, temporary shutdowns, or reduced production at some facilities had reduced supply, supporting suppliers' market stability. Post-holiday downstream demand was mediocre, and cost pressures had led to a willingness to negotiate for raw materials. The market remained stable amidst supply-demand negotiations.
Analysis review
On the supply side, Sanwei's unit underwent a refining change, the Cathay Xinhua unit was shut down for maintenance, and the Junzheng unit was temporarily shut down for some reason. The Heimao and Xinye units were operating at low loads, causing industry capacity utilization to fall below 50%. This had increased supply-side support, with suppliers actively stabilizing the market. There is hope that favorable factors will emerge on the BDO supply side.
Statistics on the operation of equipment of some production enterprises:
|
region |
Device dynamics |
|
Shaanxi Shaanhua |
The first phase was parked in early August 2024, and the second phase was parked on February 22, 2025, and the restart time is undecided |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
In the third phase of the 100,000 tons/year plant shutdown, the first phase is 60,000 tons/year, the second phase is 100,000 tons/year, the fourth phase is 100,000 tons/year, and the fifth phase is 100,000 tons/year BDO plant was running stably |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
The 300,000-ton BDO plant will replace the catalyst from October 9 to October 20 |
|
Xinjiang Cathay Xinhua |
Two sets of 200,000-ton units were temporarily scheduled for maintenance for one month starting on October 10 |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
In the first phase of the 60,000 tons/year plant shutdown, the second phase of the 140,000 tons/year capacity BDO plant load is 50% |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The load of the device is 6-7% |
|
Sinopec Great Wall Energy |
Two sets of BDO units with a capacity of 100,000 tons/year each were operating stably |
On the cost side, the domestic calcium carbide market had experienced periodic fluctuations. Recently, supply instability in Inner Mongolia intensified, and orderly electricity consumption had led to unstable supply, resulting in a sharp and temporary reduction in supply. Downstream maintenance had concentrated, creating a fierce supply-demand dynamic, leading to a decline and then a rise in calcium carbide prices. Regarding raw material methanol, the domestic methanol market was primarily consolidating. As of 3:00 PM on October 17, the reference price of methanol in Taicang was 2,260 RMB/ton. Fluctuations in raw material calcium carbide and a weak methanol consolidation had a mixed impact on BDO costs.
On the demand side, the major downstream PTMEG industry was undergoing maintenance after the holiday, while other units were operating relatively stably, resulting in a reduction in overall demand. Furthermore, downstream industries had largely completed their stockpiling before the National Day holiday, and after the holiday, they were primarily working through pre-existing inventory or maintaining contracts. Spot purchases were light and negotiable, suppressing raw material trends. The demand side of BDO provided negative factors for the market.
Market outlook
The restart of some units after maintenance had increased BDO supply. Downstream industries like PTMEG and PBT had seen reduced production, reducing raw material consumption. As the supply-demand dynamics intensified, BDO analysts at SunSirs predict the market volatility will be limited.
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