Price trend
According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic BDO market was consolidating with a weaker trend. From October 1st to 31st, the price of BDO fell from 7,565 RMB/ton to 7,437 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.38% during the period, and a year-on-year decrease of 13.81%.
Analysis review
The domestic BDO market remained weak and range-bound in October, with some plants undergoing maintenance or operating at reduced capacity, increasing supply-side support. Downstream demand increased month-on-month, but many downstream industries were operating at a loss and were negotiating raw material prices, resulting in a stalemate in the market due to the supply-demand game.
Supply side: Regarding plant operations, maintenance at Guotai Xinhua plant, refrigerant replacement at Inner Mongolia Sanwei plant, short-term shutdowns at Xinjiang Shuguang Lvhua plant, and reduced operating rates at Hengli plant all contributed to a decrease in supply compared to the previous period, providing some support to the supply side. The BDO supply provided these positive factors for the market.
Statistics on maintenance and operation of some production enterprises:
|
Region |
Device dynamics |
|
Shaanxi Shaanhua |
The first phase was parked in early August 2024, and the second phase was parked on February 22, 2025, and the restart time is undecided |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
In the third phase of the 100,000 tons/year plant shutdown, the first phase is 60,000 tons/year, the second phase is 100,000 tons/year, the fourth phase is 100,000 tons/year, and the fifth phase is 100,000 tons/year BDO plant is running stably |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
The 300,000-ton BDO plant replaced the catalyst on October 9, restarted a 150,000-ton production line on October 25, and the restart time of another 150,000-ton production line was undecided |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua |
Two sets of 200,000-ton units were temporarily scheduled for maintenance for one month starting on October 10 |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
In the first phase of the 60,000 tons/year plant shutdown, the second phase of the 140,000 tons/year capacity BDO plant load is 50% |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The load of the device was 60-70% |
|
Sinopec Great Wall Energy |
Two sets of BDO units with a capacity of 100,000 tons/year each wre operating stably |
On the cost side, for raw material calcium carbide: On the supply side, the impact of orderly power rationing in Inner Mongolia had eased somewhat, with some maintenance units gradually resuming operations, leading to a significant increase in supply; downstream maintenance was gradually ending, and regional demand was recovering. However, some companies still faced inventory pressure. While orderly power rationing had occasionally alleviated inventory accumulation, market sentiment remained bearish. For raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market remained weak. As of 3:00 PM on October 31st, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang was 2,150 RMB/ton. With rising calcium carbide prices and weak methanol prices, the impact of BDO costs was mixed.
On the demand side, downstream industries were operating at a relatively high capacity, leading to increased raw material consumption. The BDO industry is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with suppliers showing a strong intention to support the market. Downstream buyers had ample raw material purchases in the previous period and were continuing to digest inventory or maintain contract orders; moreover, under cost pressure, downstream spot purchase intentions were weak and accompanied by price negotiations, suppressing raw material prices. are expected to impact The BDO demand provided negative factors for the market.
Market outlook
Domestic BDO plants were operating at relatively stable levels, with ample supply and moderate supply-side support. Downstream demand remained focused on immediate needs, potentially increasing inventory pressure and limiting raw material price movements. According to analysts at SunSirs, the domestic BDO market is expected to remain weak.
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