Price trend
According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic BDO market declined. From October 1 to 29, BDO prices fell from 8,400 RMB/ton to 7,571 RMB/ton, a 9.86% drop over the period and a 7.34% year-on-year decrease.
Analysis review
The domestic BDO market continued to decline in September, primarily due to increased domestic BDO supply and limited supply-side support. Downstream demand increased month-over-month, but supply-demand pressures persisted, negatively impacting market sentiment and leading to overall market weakness and volatility.
On the supply side: Wuheng Chemical's Phase I facility was shut down for maintenance, and facilities at Wanhua Chemical, Shaanxi Heimao, and Hengli were operating at reduced capacity. However, other facilities operated stably, leading to increased BDO supply and weak supply-side support. BDO supply provided negative factors for the market.
Statistics on maintenance operations at selected production plants:
|
Region |
Device dynamics |
|
Shaanxi Shaanhua |
The first phase was parked in early August 2024, and the second phase was parked on February 22, 2025, and the restart time is undecided |
|
Shaanxi Heimao |
The load was 60% |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the plant is stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases were operating normally |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The device was relatively stable operation |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
The device load was 50%, and the fourth quarter is scheduled to be replaced |
|
Henan Energy and Chemical Industry |
On July 10, the whole factory was inspected, and the restart time had not been determined |
|
Kaixiang in Henan |
All 110,000-ton BDO units were shut down on February 5, and the restart time had not been determined |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The first phase was overhauled for 15 days on September 14; The load of the second phase was 70% |
|
Sinopec Great Wall Energy |
Relatively stable operation |
On the cost side, the domestic calcium carbide market continued to see a narrow upward trend, with manufacturers experiencing smooth shipments and limited supply. Market supply had recovered, with units that were previously under maintenance gradually returning to service, and production restrictions in Inner Mongolia somewhat resuming. Downstream procurement was active, and with the National Day holiday approaching, logistics pressures were driving strong downstream stockpiling. Regarding raw material methanol, the domestic methanol market remained weak. As of 10:00 AM on September 29th, the Taicang reference price for methanol was 2,260 RMB/ton. The rising calcium carbide market and fluctuating methanol prices had a mixed impact from BDO costs.
On the demand side, the production of major downstream products such as PTMEG, PBAT, and TPU had increased, increasing the consumption of raw materials. This is expected to had a positive impact from the demand side of BDO.
Market outlook
With both supply and demand increasing, BDO analysts of SunSirs predict that the domestic BDO market will be mainly in a period of consolidation.
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