In the view of Wu Jialu, a shipping researcher at Zhongxin Futures, the port charges have a generally positive impact on the overall European route market. Combined with the European route market's upcoming end-of-year price support and peak season, the container shipping index (European route) futures contract 2512 is suitable for establishing a long position below 1700 points.

In April 2025, the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) office implemented a charge measure against Chinese ships and operators – any Chinese ship calling at a U.S. port will be subject to an additional charge. The measure is scheduled to be implemented from October 14, 2025.

Reporters noted that the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced on October 3 the details of the port charges to be levied on ships owned, operated, or built in China, and all foreign-built car carriers: $50 per net ton for ships owned or operated in China (to increase to $80 in 2026, $110 in 2027, and $140 in 2028); $18 per net ton or $120 per container, whichever is higher, for ships built in China (to increase to $33 per net ton and $250 per container in 2028); and $14 per net ton for non-U.S.-built car carriers (RO-RO ships).

The above-mentioned port charges must be paid through the official payment platform of the US Department of the Treasury, Pay.gov, three working days before the arrival at the first port in the United States. If payment is not completed in the system or valid vouchers are not submitted, the vessel will face the risk of being refused loading and unloading, delayed release, and even suspension of customs clearance.

The most significant difference between the final rules and the previously released proposed rules is that the final rules allow the owner or operator of a foreign-vessel to self-determine whether to make advance payment of port charges for a foreign-vessel calling at a United States port.

In response, at the end of September, China decided to amend the Regulations on International Shipping of the People's Republic of China. Article 46 was amended to read: "If any country or region takes or assists or supports the taking of discriminatory prohibitions, restrictions, or other similar measures against the operators, ships, or crew of the international maritime transport and its auxiliary business of the People's Republic of China, except where the relevant treaties and agreements can provide sufficient and effective relief, the government of the People's Republic of China shall take necessary countermeasures according to the actual situation, including but not limited to charging special fees to the ships of that country or region calling at Chinese ports, prohibiting or restricting the ships of that country or region from entering and leaving Chinese ports, and prohibiting or restricting the organizations and individuals of that country or region from obtaining related data, information, and operating the international maritime transport and its auxiliary business entering and leaving Chinese ports."

China's shipowner operating costs will increase

Chen Zhen, a senior maritime and macro analyst at Fangzheng Mid-term Futures, told reporters that from the details, the first two of the three charging situations are specifically named for Chinese shipowners and Chinese shipyards, and are also aimed at revitalizing the U.S. shipbuilding industry and increasing taxes.

He said that the port surcharge will significantly increase the operating costs for Chinese shipowners and Chinese ships. Taking the 12,000-TEU container vessel, which is mainly used in the US route, as an example, the operating cost for shipowners is expected to increase by $30.4/TEU and the operating cost for ships is expected to increase by $120/TEU, just for calling at the US ports once.

In addition, according to the shipping company's route planning, each container ship often calls at multiple ports in the United States during each voyage, which will lead to a doubling of port charges. Previously, the United States Trade Representative's office mentioned that each ship would be charged up to 5 times a year, and a gradual collection model would be adopted to gradually increase the port rate from 2025 to 2028.

In response, leading multinational shipping companies have begun to adjust their operational strategies. Wu Jialu, a shipping researcher at Zhongxin Futures, said that since September, the world's major shipping alliances have started to adjust their routes calling at the United States and have replaced some vessels. Affected by port charges, both the PA Alliance and the GEMINI Alliance have announced that they will suspend operations on some routes and reduce the number of Chinese vessels calling at US ports through internal vessel allocation, thereby reducing related expenses. The China COSCO Shipping Group stated that services on US routes will still remain normal. Shipping companies such as CMA and MSC have also stated that they will not impose additional surcharges for port charges.

Lei Yue, head of shipping research at Haitong Futures, said that the proportion of "Made in China" in the capacity deployment of foreign top shipping companies on the US route ranges from 4% to 20%. Taking the GEMINI alliance as an example, currently, among the more than 80 container ships deployed in the US route, less than 10 are "Made in China", which can directly exchange capacity with other routes, and there is basically no impact. MSC has about 100 container ships deployed in the US route, and "Made in China" is within 20; CMA has about 50 container ships in the US route, and 15 of them are "Made in China"; ONE has about 50 container ships in the US route, and 10 of them are "Made in China". The above shipping companies or institutions may accelerate the redeployment of capacity before the port charges are collected on October 14, especially in the current context of the rapid decline in demand on the US route and the serious空voyage in some voyages, accelerating the withdrawal of "Made in China" capacity.

According to the latest news from the shipping network, the tariff disruptions and the weakness of the US demand have led to the rapid cancellation of container shipping companies. Currently, the operating profit margin of the carrier has fallen below the breakeven point on several major routes, but the shipping companies are still prioritizing market share over profitability, focusing on market share.

According to the latest data from project44, 67 sailings were canceled this month on the route from China to the United States, while 71 were canceled on the reverse route. Bart De Muynck, chief strategy officer at Better Supply Chains, said the pace at which carriers are canceling flights has never been seen since the pandemic began. The strategy is more about maintaining rate stability in a market distorted by tariffs than responding to a crisis.

Analysts: Direct impact on the European market needs to be continuously observed

Lei Yue said that the latest port charges would not cause obvious disruptions to the overall运 capacity of the transatlantic route, only Chinese shipping companies were clearly targeted, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the internal运 capacity and pricing strategy of the shipping alliance led by OA. At the same time, the impact of the above port charges on the European route market is relatively limited. Currently, the volume of cargo on the transatlantic route has significantly declined and the number of empty flights has increased, and related ships are being adjusted to routes including the European route for消化, and it is still necessary to pay attention to the situation of trade negotiations.

In Chen Zhen's view, the above port charges will continue to be observed for their direct impact on the European route market. On the one hand, shipowners can avoid port charges by changing ships and transshipment; on the other hand, shipowners may increase freight rates to European shippers on the grounds of port charges. The initial collection of port charges may lead to confusion in the turnover of ships, and the overall increase in operating costs for shipowners may support the futures price of the container shipping index (European route).

In Wu Jialu's view, the port fee has a generally positive impact on the overall European route market. Combined with the upcoming peak season and the end of the year, the Container Shipping Index (European route) futures contract 2512 is suitable for long positions below the 1700 mark.

"On one hand, the latest port charging standards are relatively high and are expected to continue to rise in the future, and the cost of shipping is expected to continue to grow, and the actual impact needs to be observed continuously. On the other hand, European shipping companies have generally increased freight rates in the second half of October, and there are at least two rounds of price increases expected. In addition, the suspension of shipping during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays and the overall low scheduling in November have led to the shipping companies' long-term agreement negotiations still having the motivation to increase prices, so the container index (European line) futures contract 2512 can be tried to be laid low in a long position below 1700 points. In addition, Israel and Hamas recently started negotiations on the "20-point plan" proposed by the United States, and the Suez Canal Authority stated that it will actively promote the resumption of shipping, so it is possible to carry out a long position arbitrage operation between the container index (European line) futures contract 2512 and the far-month contract in 2026." Wu Jialu said.

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