The steel industry as a whole is still in the stage of capacity reduction, and the increase in steel exports helps to alleviate the domestic supply and demand pattern. During the holiday period, the spot price of iron ore in Singapore increased slightly, and after the holiday, the price of steel is expected to increase slightly, and then fluctuate.
During the holiday period, the steel market rebounded significantly under the influence of various positive news.
In the domestic market, during the National Day holiday, real estate companies increased their promotional efforts, and the market transaction enthusiasm rebounded, with the sales area of new commercial housing in some cities increasing year-on-year. Specifically, real estate companies in cities such as Shenzhen, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Wuhan launched a "Combination punch " of strategies such as special offer houses and purchase subsidies to stimulate sales during the holiday. According to Shenzhen News, the enthusiasm of Shenzhen citizens for viewing houses is high, and since the holiday, the number of visitors and transactions of a certain project in Longgang District has increased by 40% to 50% compared to weekdays. The Paper reported that since the National Day holiday, more than 200 groups of customers have viewed the project in Qingpu District, Shanghai, and the transaction amount has reached 63 million RMB. According to the Tianhe Release of Guangzhou, a new housing project sold more than 200 units on its opening day on September 27th, and on October 1st, it added more units, with a transaction volume of more than 100 units in three days, attracting more than a thousand groups of customers. According to Hubei Housing and Urban-Rural Development, from October 1st to 5th, the sales area of real estate in the province increased by more than 10% year-on-year. However, according to the data from C&D, in the first three quarters of 2025, real estate company financing still showed a contraction trend. Among them, financing in the third quarter was 114.5 billion RMB, a 5% increase compared to the second quarter, but a 35% decrease compared to the same period last year.
In terms of overseas markets, the probability of a 25-basis-point cut in the Fed funds rate by the Federal Reserve in October is relatively high. The CME "FedWatch" tool shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate in October is 5.9%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point cut is 94.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the interest rate in December is 0.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 15.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 83.9%. On October 6, local time, US President Trump posted on his social platform "Real Social" that starting from November 1, 2025, all medium and heavy trucks imported from other countries and regions to the United States will be subject to a 25% tariff. According to the data of the China Automobile Circulation Association, China exported 90,000 heavy trucks in the first seven months of the year, mainly to Russia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Saudi Arabia. The number exported to the United States is very small, and the impact of the US tariff on all heavy trucks is limited. In terms of Europe, the EU plans to reduce steel import quotas and impose a 50% tariff, which will have a limited impact on China's steel exports. China's steel is mainly exported to Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America, and other regions.
In the spot market, domestic construction steel prices remained stable during the National Day holiday, while the price of Tangshan blooms stabilized. The ex-factory price of tax-inclusive resources of Mian'an square blooms was reported at 2,950 RMB/ton, and the Quotation for the first ten days of October for Rebar from Shagang, Zhongtian Iron & Steel, and Yonggang remained stable. Traders were cautious during the holiday, with only a few transactions, and most traders had not yet quoted prices. Although a few steel mills took the initiative to maintain inspections, the supply of steel, especially plates, was at a high level. According to SMM data, during the holiday, China's major ports shipped 3.2997 million tons of steel, a decrease of 2% week-on-week, and it is still at a seasonal high. Overall, inventory increased slightly, and the end user was cautious, with general ordering intentions.
Overall, the holiday real estate sales data has improved, but the sustainability still needs to be observed, and the fourth quarter is difficult to substantially boost steel consumption growth. The steel industry as a whole is still in the stage of capacity reduction, and the increase in steel exports helps to alleviate the oversupplied market pattern domestically. During the holiday, the Singapore iron ore swap price rose slightly, and after the holiday, steel prices are expected to rise slightly and then fluctuate.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices; On October 13th, the benchmark price of rebar on SunSirs was 3,173.00 RMB per ton, an increase of 0.14% compared with the beginning of this month (3,168.50 RMB per ton).
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