Minmetals Securities recently released an in-depth analysis of the electronics industry: In the field of new energy, silicon carbide (SiC) is the core device for achieving efficient energy savings. We expect that by 2030, the global demand for SiC substrates (6-inch equivalent, unless otherwise specified) in the "new energy vehicle + charging pile + photovoltaic and storage" sector will be about 5.77 million pieces, with a CAGR of ~36.7%. In the new energy vehicle sector, the 800V high-voltage platform is gradually becoming popular, with a penetration rate of 11.17% by 2025. SiC MOSFET is applied to core components such as the main drive inverter and DC-DC converter, which can reduce the energy consumption of the entire vehicle by 8%-10%.

The following is an abstract of the research paper:

Silicon carbide (SiC) has become a key support for driving technology upgrades and efficiency revolutions. As the core material of the third-generation wide-bandgap semiconductor, it is characterized by a large band gap, high breakdown electric field, excellent thermal conductivity, and fast electronic saturation drift speed. It is fully penetrating the four high-growth industries of new energy, AI, communication, and AR. Its application scenarios extend from power devices to heat dissipation materials, optical substrates, and other fields, with demand growing explosively. The industry is about to enter a period of rapid development.

In the field of new energy, SiC is the core device to achieve efficient energy saving. We expect that by 2030, the global demand for SiC substrates (6-inch equivalent, unless otherwise specified) in the "new energy vehicle + charging pile + photovoltaic storage" will be about 5.77 million pieces, with a CAGR of ~36.7%. In the field of new energy vehicles, the 800V high-voltage platform is gradually popularizing, and the penetration rate has reached 11.17% by 2025. SiC MOSFET is applied to core components such as the main drive inverter and DC-DC converter, which can reduce the energy consumption of the whole vehicle by 8%-10%. Our calculation shows that the global demand for SiC substrates in the new energy vehicle field will reach 4.32 million pieces in 2030, and China will need 3.28 million pieces. In terms of high-voltage DC charging piles, the construction of 1 million high-power charging piles will be completed by 2027 under the policy promotion, and SiC, with its high-voltage resistance characteristics, has become the key to meeting the standards. The global demand for SiC substrates will be 510,000 pieces in 2030, and China will need 290,000 pieces. In the photovoltaic and storage field, SiC will improve the efficiency of photovoltaic inverters and energy storage converters. The global demand for SiC substrates will be 9.4 million pieces in 2030, and China will need 3 million pieces.

In the AI industry, SiC is facing a "power + heat dissipation" dual growth opportunity. In terms of data centers, the improvement of computing power has led to a surge in the power density of cabinets. SiC is applied to UPS, HVDC, SST and other power equipment. By 2030, the global power industry will have a demand for 7.3 million substrates, and China will have a demand of 2 million substrates. At the same time, SiC is used as an advanced packaging heat dissipation material to solve the problem of high heat generation of GPU. By 2030, the global demand for substrates for AI chips' intermediary layers is about 62 million pieces, and China's demand is 17.3 million pieces; if SiC is used as the substrate and heat sink material in the existing technology path of CoWoS process, the substrate space in the field of AI chip heat dissipation will be increased by 2 times.

In the field of communication radio frequency, 5G-A and 6G promote the upgrading of radio frequency devices, and the GaN-on-SiC scheme has become the mainstream with its excellent heat dissipation and high-frequency performance. The global demand for semi-insulating SiC substrates for radio frequency in 2030 will reach 170,000 pieces, and China accounts for 60%, about 100,000 pieces.

The global AR glasses substrate demand in 2030 is 3.89 million pieces, and China's demand is 1.37 million pieces. In the AR industry, SiC's high refractive index characteristics make it an ideal substrate for light wave guide plates, which can expand the field of view and solve the rainbow pattern issue.

Title, promoting the miniaturization and full-colorization of AR glasses.

The comprehensive outbreak on the demand side has promoted the rapid expansion of the industry scale, and it is expected that the supply and demand of SiC substrates will be in a tight balance in 2027, and there is even a possibility of a tight capacity supply; by 2030, the global demand for substrates will reach 167.6 million pieces, compared with the supply in 2025, there will be a capacity gap of about 120 million pieces. Among them, AI intermediary layer, new energy vehicles, AR glasses are the three core growth points, and we expect that the demand ratio in 2030 will be 37%, 26%, 23%; among them, SiC in the application of advanced packaging heat dissipation materials in AI chips, if it can achieve industrialization in the three links of "substrate layer", "intermediary layer" and "heat sink", the global demand for SiC substrates in 2030E is expected to reach about 300 million pieces.

Risk warning:

1. The intensification of Sino-US trade friction and the risk of further supply chain constraints; 2. Demand from downstream is not as expected; 3. Product research and development, technology iteration, and market advancement are not as expected, such as SiC as a heat dissipation material for advanced packaging, all three aspects, namely, intermediaries, substrates, and heat sinks, are still in the research and development stage, and the technology route is not yet fully determined, with high risk; 4. The intensification of industry competition.

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