Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs: In September 2025, the domestic 1# lead ingot market rose slightly. The average domestic market price was 16,780 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month and 16,850 RMB/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.42%.

On September 30th, the SunSirs Lead Index was 102.55 points, up 0.03 points from the previous day, down 23.48% from its cyclical high of 134.01 points (November 29, 2016), and up 37.41% from its cyclical low of 74.63 points (March 19, 2015). (Note: The cyclical period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to the present.)

Analysis review

At the beginning of September, domestic lead-acid battery consumption showed no significant improvement. The traditional peak season for consumption failed to meet expectations, leading to a continuous accumulation of domestic lead ingot inventories. Meanwhile, domestic recycled lead smelters continued to suffer losses, with operating rates remaining low. By mid-month, production cuts and suspensions at domestic recycled lead smelters had further expanded. The market generally expected that domestic recycled lead smelters might struggle to increase production in the short term. Coupled with the influx of funds into the market, the Shanghai lead price quickly rose, and has since remained volatile.

Supply side

In September, domestic primary lead smelters previously under maintenance gradually resumed production. At the same time, some smelters began winter stockpiling early, significantly increasing demand for lead ore. However, the imported ore market remains volatile, and the domestic lead concentrate market is expected to remain in a tight balance in October. Regarding lead scrap, the domestic market has seen no significant improvement in scrap volumes recently, and domestic lead scrap prices are expected to remain volatile.

Demand side

September and October are typically peak seasons for lead-acid battery consumption, but this year's market performance has fallen short of expectations. Affected by factors such as tariff adjustments and price comparisons, export orders for some lead-acid batteries have declined significantly. Furthermore, this year's lead-acid battery market exhibits a "stable off-season, but subdued peak season" trend, with overall consumption levels remaining relatively stable and lacking significant growth momentum. Notably, with the official implementation of the new national standard for electric bicycles in September, some downstream companies have reported an increase in orders for new vehicles. This trend warrants continued attention to its potential impact on the lead consumption market.

Market outlook

In the domestic market, the supply of lead ingots is expected to increase, but its consumer demand has not shown significant signs of recovery. Based on this market situation, lead prices may face certain downward pressure.

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