Price trend
According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the domestic BDO price remains at 7,465 RMB/ton from October 20th to 24th, a 0.76% month-on-month decrease and a 6.34% year-on-year decline. The domestic BDO market is operating in a wait-and-see mode, with fluctuations in production facilities continuing. Industry capacity utilization is low, and losses persist. Supply-side tightening policies are supporting the market, and downstream contracts are following suit. Spot purchases are weak, with resistance to high prices. The supply-demand game continues, making market fluctuations difficult.
Analysis review
On the supply side, Junzheng and Xinye's Phase I plants have restarted, the Shaanxi Heimao plant has slightly improved its negative performance, and the Shuguang Luhua plant has been temporarily shut down. Industry capacity utilization remains low, and supply-side support remains. There is hope that favorable factors will emerge on the BDO supply side.
Statistics on plant operation at some production companies:
|
region |
Device dynamics |
|
Shaanxi Shaanhua |
The first phase was parked in early August 2024, and the second phase was parked on February 22, 2025, and the restart time is undecided |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
In the third phase of the 100,000 tons/year plant shutdown, the first phase is 60,000 tons/year, the second phase is 100,000 tons/year, the fourth phase is 100,000 tons/year, and the fifth phase is 100,000 tons/year BDO plant is running stably |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
The 300,000-ton BDO plant replaced the catalyst from October 9 to October 20 |
|
Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua |
Two sets of 200,000-ton units were scheduled for maintenance for one month starting on October 10 |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
In the first phase of the 60,000 tons/year plant shutdown, the second phase of the 140,000 tons/year capacity BDO plant load is 50% |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The load of the device is 60-70% |
|
Sinopec Great Wall Energy |
Two sets of BDO units with a capacity of 100,000 tons/year each are operating stably |
On the cost side, the domestic calcium carbide market remains stable. However, due to the continued impact of orderly electricity consumption in Inner Mongolia, overall supply remains unstable. With the resumption of maintenance in downstream regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Ningxia, downstream demand has seen a significant increase. Regarding the domestic methanol market, as of 10:00 PM on October 23rd, the reference price of methanol in Taicang was 2,245 RMB/ton. Raw material calcium carbide remains stable, methanol consolidates at a weak level, and BDO cost provides negative factors for the market.
On the demand side, downstream PTMEG production has declined slightly, while loads in industries such as PBT, GBL-NMP, and PBAT have increased, leading to an overall increase in downstream demand, resulting in a supply-demand imbalance in the market. BDO demand also provides favorable factors for the market.
Future Outlook
There is no significant change in the fundamentals, and the supply and demand game is intensifying. BDO analysts at SunSirs predict that the BDO market will mainly maintain stability and consolidate.
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