Price trend
According to the business data analysis system of SunSirs, from January 4th to 9th, the domestic price of BDO remained at 7,357 RMB/ton, maintaining a stable price compared to the previous period, but a year-on-year decrease of 13.15%. Suppliers maintained a stable market stance, while buyers, under cost pressure, showed increased bargaining sentiment, leading to intensified negotiations and making it difficult for the domestic BDO market to see significant price fluctuations.
Analysis and Commentarys
On the supply side, due to maintenance shutdowns or catalyst replacements at Wanhua Chemical and Lanshan Tunhe's Phase II plants, the supply of goods has decreased, providing increased support to the supply side. Some suppliers have slightly reduced their annual contract volumes, and online auctions have seen transactions at the higher end of the price range, indicating a strong desire among suppliers to stabilize the market. Overall, the BDO supply side was influenced by positive factors.
Statistics on the operating status of equipment at some manufacturing companies:
|
region |
Device dynamics |
|
Shaanxi Shaanhua |
The first phase was parked in early August 2024, and the second phase was parked on February 22, 2025, and the restart time was undecided |
|
Xinjiang Meike |
The third phase of the plant was stopped, and the first, second, fourth and fifth phases were running steadily |
|
Inner Mongolia Sanwei |
300,000 tons/year BDO plant, the current load was around 7-8% |
|
Xinjiang Cathay Xinhua |
The two sets of 200,000-ton units are relatively stable in operation |
|
Xinjiang Xinye |
The first phase of the 60,000-ton plant and the second phase of the 7+70,000 tons/year plant were running stably |
|
Ningxia Wuheng Chemical |
The load of the device was 60-70% |
|
Sichuan Tianhua |
The first phase of the 25,000 tons/year and the second phase of the 60,000-ton plant were running stably |
In terms of costs, for calcium carbide (raw material): the domestic calcium carbide market was rising, with uneven regional shipments from manufacturers, but overall supply was tight. For methanol (raw material): domestic methanol prices were showing a weak downward trend. As of 10:00 AM on January 9th, the reference price for domestic methanol in Taicang was 2,250 RMB/ton. The rising price of calcium carbide and the fluctuating price of methanol (rising then falling) had a mixed impact on BDO costs.
On the demand side, downstream PTMEG production has increased, while PBT, GBL-NMP, and PU slurry production has decreased. Other downstream sectors were operating steadily, resulting in a month-on-month reduction in overall demand. Furthermore, with the planned restart of the Sichuan Yongying plant in mid-January, there was no significant increase in downstream demand, exacerbating the supply-demand pressure in the industry. The impact of demand on BDO market was mixed.
Market Outlook
With both supply and demand increasing, negotiations and market competition are intensifying, and the market focus remained temporarily stable. The restart of maintenance-affected facilities has increased the supply of goods, weakening support from the supply side. Downstream PTMEG production has increased, and other industries remained stable, leading to increased consumption of raw materials. Sunsirs' BDO analyst predicts that the domestic BDO market is likely to trend upwards.
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