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SunSirs: In June, the Domestic Market of Natural Rubber Fell First and Then Rose, Which Continued to Fluctuate
July 01 2022 10:35:58SunSirs(John)

Price trend

According to the monitoring of SunSirs (100ppi.com), the main trend of domestic natural rubber (Standard 1) in the East China market in June showed a shock trend of first falling and then rebounding: On the 1st, the mainstream quotation in the domestic market was about 12,990 RMB/ton, and on the 30th, the main quotation was 12,854 RMB/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.05%. Among them, the highest price this month was 13,140 RMB/ton on the 9th, and the lowest was 12,510 RMB/ton on the 22nd, with a maximum amplitude of 4.79%.

Analysis review

Industry analysis, macro, on June 29, international crude oil futures prices fell. The settlement price of the main U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was quoted at 109.78 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.98 US dollars or 1.8%; the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was reported at 112.45 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.35 US dollars or 1.2%. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data was bad, refined oil inventories increased; and market concerns about the risk of a global recession weighed on oil prices.

Supply side: The supply of Southeast Asian production areas continued to increase, the output of Yunnan production areas in China increased steadily, the production of Hainan increased, and the output increased, and the processing plants resumed operation. In terms of inventory: the current import volume is not large, and the domestic inventory has been reduced slightly. On the demand side: the operating rate of enterprises has not increased significantly. It is reported that the operating rate of all-steel tires decreased week-on-week last week, while the operating rate of semi-steel tires rebounded from a week-on-week period. The average operating rate of semi- and all-steel tires for automobiles in June was higher than that in May, and also slightly lower in April. The inventory of finished tires was high, and the purchase of raw rubber had not greatly improved; the production and sales of downstream automobiles had increased month-on-month. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in May 2022, the output of rubber tire casings in China was 70.233 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10%. From January to May, the output of rubber tire casings fell by 9.3% to 340.873 million from the same period of the previous year.

Market outlook

The demand for natural rubber will rebound with the improvement of the domestic economy. At present, the supply side at home and abroad continues to increase, and the operating rate of downstream manufacturers is average. The domestic auto promotion policy has boosted natural rubber futures, and production and sales have rebounded month-on-month. It is expected that the natural rubber market is likely to continue to fluctuate in a range.

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