According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from June 23rd to 27th, MTBE prices fell from 5,585 RMB/ton to 5,137 RMB/ton, with a price drop of 8.01% during the cycle, a month on month increase of 0.59%, and a year-on-year decrease of 20.81%. With the easing of geopolitical conflicts, international crude oil prices have experienced a wide range of price declines, leading to a decline in the MTBE market. The MTBE market is greatly affected by fluctuations in international crude oil prices, with prices showing a rapid upward trend and gradually falling back.
On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have dropped significantly, with the main negative factors being the agreement between Israel and Iran to reach a ceasefire agreement, significant signs of geopolitical easing, and reduced potential supply risks. As of June 26th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for the August contract was $67.73 per barrel.
On the demand side, during the peak summer travel season, there is still some favorable support for gasoline terminal demand. The MTBE demand side is influenced by favorable factors.
Supply side: The Shandong Dechen plant has started operation, and the plant operating rate has increased. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.
As of the close on June 26th, the Asian MTBE market closed at $5.93/ton lower than the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $661.28-663.28/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by $7/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $824.74-825.24/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $3.97/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $682.54-682.89/ton (192.72-192.82 cents/gallon).
Future forecast: Currently, raw material prices continue to operate at high levels, and manufacturers are still in a loss making situation, with some support in terms of cost. The MTBE analyst from SunSirs believes that the domestic MTBE market may stop falling and maintain stability.
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