According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average price of LLDPE (7042) was 6,410 RMB/ton on January 1st and 6,890 RMB/ton on January 15th, an increase of 7.49%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 8,400 RMB/ton on January 1st and 9,283 RMB/ton on January 15th, an increase of 10.52%. HDPE (2426H) had an average price of 6,862 RMB/ton on January 1st and 7,300 RMB/ton on January 15th, an increase of 6.38%.

At the beginning of 2026, PE showed a strong upward trend, led by LDPE due to high import dependence. The main factors are the rise in crude oil costs due to Iran's geopolitical risks, tightening expectations for imported high-pressure materials supply, and limited support from supply and demand fundamentals.

Cost side: The situation in Iran has raised concerns about crude oil supply, causing a significant increase in crude oil prices. Cost side support for PE is strong.

Supply side: The expectation of PE plant shutdown and maintenance is relatively strong, and the pace of new production capacity deployment has slowed down, resulting in a slight contraction in the supply side. Although the early maintenance equipment has gradually recovered, the overall operating rate is still relatively low, alleviating the pressure of oversupply. LDPE has a high dependence on imports, and tight shipping and delivery expectations have pushed up the price of high-pressure materials.

On the demand side: Agricultural film is in the off-season of demand, and packaging film is mainly replenished for urgent needs, leading to an increase in resistance to high prices. The demand for replenishing inventory before the Spring Festival is temporarily supported, but factories will gradually shut down from the end of January to early February, and the demand will further weaken.

On the futures side, the main contract for continuous plastic trading fluctuated and climbed, closing at about 6,766 RMB/ton on January 14th, forming a positive driving force for PE spot trading.

Driven by cost support and the strengthening of futures, the high volatility of spot prices is supported, but downstream resistance to high prices and slower trading limit upward space. It is expected that PE will fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and the upward trend will slow down.

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