Latest Intelligence on Bulk Raw Materials
Macro
1. [Federal Reserve Interest Rate] The Federal Reserve announced its June interest rate decision, keeping the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, and remained unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations.
2. [U.S. Inflation Expectations] The Federal Reserve lowered its GDP forecast for 2025 to 1.4%, while raising its inflation expectations to 3%. In addition, the Fed's dot plot shows that interest rates are expected to be cut twice in 2025 by a total of 50 basis points, which is consistent with expectations in March, but only 25 basis points are expected to be cut in 2026, while the previous forecast was a 50 basis point cut.
3. [UK CPI] The year-on-year increase in the UK CPI in May slowed slightly to 3.4%, but it was still far above the Bank of England's 2% inflation target.
4. [Japanese Imports and Exports] Japan's exports to the United States fell 11.1% year-on-year in May, falling for two consecutive months, with automobile exports to the United States falling sharply by 24.7%. Japan's overall exports fell 1.7% year-on-year in May, the first decline in eight months; imports fell 7.7% year-on-year.
Energy
1. [Crude oil] On June 18, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the August contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $73.50 per barrel, an increase of $0.23 or 0.5%. The settlement price of the August contract of Brent crude oil futures was $76.70 per barrel, an increase of $0.25 or 0.5%.
2. [Crude oil] Barclays said in a report on June 19 that if Iran's oil exports are halved, Brent crude oil prices are expected to rise to $85 per barrel. The bank also added that in the worst case scenario of a wider conflict in Iran, prices are expected to exceed $100 per barrel.
3. [Natural gas] The U.S. Treasury Department issued a general license related to Russia, authorizing the provision of certain services related to the Sakhalin-2 oil and gas development project.
4. [Energy] From January to May, my country's green electricity trading volume reached 220.945 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 49.2%, and the trading volume is close to the level of the whole year last year.
5. [Naphtha] On June 18, Shangneng Petrochemical's hydrogenated naphtha quoted 7,400 RMB/ton, a price increase of 30 RMB/ton from the previous day, and the company's shipments were normal.
Chemicals
1. [Lithium Battery] Dazhong Mining announced that it plans to invest 1 billion RMB to build a new material project with an annual output of 3,000 tons of metal lithium batteries.
2. [Hexanediamine] On June 17, Ascend announced that it had decided to start orderly closing the hexanediamine production plant in Lianyungang, China.
3. [Methanol] On June 18, the first phase 600,000 tons/year methanol unit and the second phase 800,000 tons/year coal-to-methanol unit of Yulin Yankuang were operating normally. The first phase methanol unit is scheduled to be overhauled on June 30, and the estimated duration is about 25 days.
Natgasoline's 1.75 million tons/year methanol unit in North America has recently experienced a short-term load reduction, but has now resumed normal operation.
4. [BDO] On June 18, Sichuan Tianhua's BDO Phase I 25,000 tons/year and Phase II 60,000 tons units are currently operating stably, with a replacement plan at the end of June or early July.
Inner Mongolia Junzheng's 300,000 tons BDO unit is currently operating at 70% load, and is scheduled to undergo a 7-day overhaul on June 22.
Sichuan Yongying's 180,000 tons/year BDO unit was temporarily shut down on the evening of June 17, and the restart time is yet to be determined.
5. [MIBK] On June 18, Wanhua Chemical's 15,000 tons/year MIBK unit was operating normally, mainly delivering to contract customers, and the expanded 30,000 tons/year MIBK unit was under construction, and the commissioning time is yet to be determined.
6. [Ethylene glycol] Dalian Commodity Exchange: Starting from the trading on June 20, 2025 (i.e. the night session on June 19), Dalian Commodity Exchange will expand the range of products that qualified foreign investors can trade, and newly open ethylene glycol and liquefied petroleum gas futures and options contracts.
7. [Diethylene glycol] On June 18, according to statistics, 19,600 tons of diethylene glycol are expected to arrive at Zhangjiagang this week, and the volume is mostly concentrated within the cycle.
8. [Diethylene glycol] On June 17, the total shipment volume of the two warehouses in Zhangjiagang was 1,498 tons, an increase of 131 tons from the previous day. As of now, the inventory of the two warehouses is 30,900 tons.
9. [TDI] It is understood that the latest TDI execution price of a large factory in Shanghai has been raised to 12,100 RMB/ton this week.
10. [Phenol] On June 19, the ex-factory settlement price of phenol products of Lihua YiweiRMB Chemical Co., Ltd. was reduced by 100 RMB to 6,850 RMB/ton, and this price will be implemented from June 19.
11. [Activated carbon] On June 18, Hebei Shunkang coconut shell activated carbon with an iodine value of 800 was quoted at 8,900 RMB/ton (ex-factory tax included), and the price increased by 50 RMB/ton. At present, the inventory of activated carbon is about 40%, and the monthly output is 300 tons.
12. [PX] On June 18, the closing price of paraxylene in the Asian market increased by 8 US dollars/ton, and the closing price was 863-865 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 888-890 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Rubber and plastic
1. [PP] The four PP production units of Dushanzi Petrochemical have a total annual production capacity of 690,000 tons. The first phase of the first line was temporarily shut down for one day for conversion and resumed production on June 18. The load of other units is normal. The ex-factory reference price of fiber material S2040 has been raised by 50 RMB to 7,450 RMB/ton.
2. [Butadiene rubber] Haopu New Materials' 60,000 tons/year high-smoothness butadiene rubber unit was shut down for maintenance on June 1, 2025 and has now restarted to normal operation.
3. [Synthetic rubber] According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's synthetic rubber production in May 2025 was 699,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%; the cumulative production from January to May was 3.534 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%.
4. [Tire] According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's rubber tire outer tire production in May 2025 was 101.993 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%. From January to May, the output of rubber tire outer tires was 488.962 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%.
5. [Tires] According to customs data, China's rubber tire exports reached 3.89 million tons in the first five months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%; the export value was 69.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%.
6. [Natural rubber] The latest data shows that in the first five months of 2025, Thailand exported a total of 1.207 million tons of natural rubber (excluding compound rubber), a year-on-year decrease of 2%. Among them, the total export of standard rubber was 699,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11%; the export of smoked sheet rubber was 168,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 21%; the export of latex was 332,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%.
Textile
1. [Acrylonitrile] It is reported that Fushun Petrochemical's 92,000 tons/year acrylonitrile unit was shut down for maintenance due to a malfunction from June 13 to 21.
2. [Acrylonitrile] According to statistics, as of June 18, the domestic acrylonitrile factory inventory was 43,600 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons from last week.
3. [Cotton yarn] On June 18, the national average price of 3128 lint cotton to the factory was 14,888 RMB/ton, the price of 32s pure cotton yarn ring spinning was 20,871 RMB/ton, and the spinning profit was -1505.8 RMB/ton, a drop of 22 RMB/ton. The price of raw cotton has risen, and the immediate profit of spinning companies has decreased.
4. [Lint cotton] According to the statistics bureau data of the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat, the export volume from June 1 to 13 was 71,976 tons, while in June 2024 it was 160,408 tons. The average daily export volume so far in June is 7,198 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%.
Steel
1. [Ferrosilicon] A ferrosilicon plant in Ledu, Qinghai Province plans to reduce the production of two ferrosilicon ore furnaces on the 18th, involving a reduction of more than 70 tons of ferrosilicon peak daily production, and the resumption time has not yet been determined.
2. [Manganese silicon] Recently, an alloy plant in Fengzhen City, Ulanqab, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, ignited a new 42000KVA silicon-manganese alloy ore furnace, involving a daily output of about 200 tons.
3. [Iron ore] On June 18, the national main port iron ore transaction volume was 1.029 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.3%; 237 mainstream traders traded 96,700 tons of construction steel, a month-on-month increase of 4.6%.
4. [Steel] On June 18, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,261 RMB/ton, a daily decrease of 1 RMB/ton, an average profit loss of 131 RMB/ton, and a profit loss of 29 RMB/ton for valley electricity.
5. [Steel] Customs data showed that in May 2025, China exported 6.33 million tons of steel plates, a year-on-year decrease of 1.0%; from January to May, the cumulative exports were 30.39 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%. In May, China exported 1.8 million tons of steel bars, a year-on-year increase of 53.5%; from January to May, the cumulative exports were 7.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%.
6. [Steel] It is reported that the Steel Authority of India Limited (SAIL) has started a brownfield expansion project of its Indian Steel Company IISCO Steel Plant, which is expected to cost US$5.34 billion. The project will actually build a new steel plant with an annual production capacity of 4.6 million tons on the existing IISCO site in Benpur, eastern West Bengal, bringing the total production capacity of the plant to 7.1 million tons per year. The expansion and modernization of the IISCO Steel Plant is expected to be completed in 2029.
7. [Silicon manganese] According to Korean customs data, South Korea's silicon manganese imports in May 2025 were 10,573.9 tons, down 32.02% from the previous month and 32.42% from the previous year. Among them, Malaysia imported 8,644.8 tons, Bhutan imported 504 tons, Vietnam imported 1,350.1 tons, and India imported 75 tons.
8. [Ferrosilicon] According to Korean customs data, South Korea's ferrosilicon imports in May 2025 were 19,600.6 tons, down 2.97% from the previous month and 5.47% from the previous year. The import volume of ferrosilicon (≦55%) was 1,310.5 tons, and the export volume was 52.5 tons. The main importing countries were China (776 tons), Japan (195 tons), Norway (190.6 tons), and Thailand (108.6 tons). The import volume of ferrosilicon (>55%) was 18,290.1 tons, with the main importing countries being China (9,474.8 tons), Russia (1,003 tons), Brazil (1,656 tons), Malaysia (5,741.8 tons), and Vietnam (304 tons); the export volume was 63.7 tons.
Nonferrous metals
1. [Lead] Shanghai Futures Exchange: Starting from trading on June 20, 2025 (i.e., the night session on June 19), the Shanghai Futures Exchange will expand the range of products that qualified foreign investors can trade, and newly open natural rubber, lead, and tin futures and options contracts.
2. [Aluminum] The Indian government of Odisha approved eight major industrial projects on Monday, including a large-scale aluminum project in Dhenkanal where mining giant Vedanta Group plans to invest 1.28 trillion rupees, including an aluminum smelter with an annual production capacity of 3 million tons (MTPA) and a supporting 4,900 MW self-contained power plant.
3. [Copper] It is understood that after several delays in feeding, India's Adani copper smelter has started feeding again on June 16, but due to the previous delays in feeding, its long copper concentrate raw material supply orders with South America are at risk of being cancelled. The annual production capacity of Adani smelter is 500,000 tons.
4. [Copper] According to foreign media on June 18, the latest data report released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) showed that in April 2025, global refined copper production was 2.5175 million tons, consumption was 2.3238 million tons, and supply was 193,600 tons in excess.
Building materials
1. [Glass] Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange: Starting from the trading on June 20, 2025 (i.e. the night session on June 19), Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will expand the range of tradable products for qualified foreign investors, and newly open glass, soda ash, and ferrosilicon futures and options contracts.
2. [Glass] On June 18, Weihai Zhongbo Line 4 (design capacity 500 tons/day) plans to convert black glass to Ford Blue.
Zhangzhou Qibin Zhangzhou Line 2 (design capacity 600 tons/day) plans to convert white glass to Crystal Gray.
Jilin Yingxin Shuangliao Line 2 (design capacity 700 tons/day) stops feeding and plans to release water on the 18th.
Agricultural and sideline products
1. [Wheat] According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, since the beginning of summer, my country's summer grain wheat has matured and harvested from south to north. As of June 18, the harvest progress has reached 96%. During the "Three Summers", large-scale mechanized harvesting of wheat across the country has basically ended.
2. [Mushrooms] Recently, the Shanghai Local Standard "Technical Regulations for Green Production of Mushrooms" (DB31/T1588-2025), drafted by the Shanghai Academy of Agricultural Sciences, was officially released and will be officially implemented on September 1, 2025.
3. [Sugar] According to statistics, my country imported 350,000 tons of sugar in May, an increase of about 220,000 tons from April, and an increase of 1954.9% year-on-year; from January to May 2025, my country's cumulative sugar imports reached 630,000 tons, a decrease of 50.1% year-on-year.
4. [Soybean] According to the forecast of the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC), Brazil's soybean exports in June are expected to reach 14.37 million tons, which was previously expected to be 14.08 million tons; soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.97 million tons, which was previously expected to be 2.07 million tons; corn exports are expected to be 913,316 tons, which was previously expected to be 923,401 tons.
5. [Palm Oil] According to the data of the South Malaysian Palm Oil Association, from June 1 to 15, 2025, the palm oil production in South Malaysia decreased by 4.0% month-on-month, of which the fresh fruit bunch yield decreased by 3.85% month-on-month, and the oil yield rate (OER) decreased by 0.03%.
6. [Palm Oil] Data released by shipping research agency AmSpecAgri showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports reached 606,192 tons from June 1 to 15, an increase of 17.8% from 514,713 tons in the same period of May, indicating that palm oil demand has recovered strongly since entering June.
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