Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, the price of seamless tubes slightly decreased in June. At the beginning of the month on the 20th, the price of 108 * 4.5 seamless tubes was 4,112.5 RMB/ton, which fell to 4,050 RMB/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.52%, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%.

Analysis review

In terms of raw materials, the fourth round of coke price reduction of 50-55 RMB/ton has been fully implemented, and cost support has weakened.

Supply side: As of the end of the month, seamless tube production reached 374,800 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons year-on-year; The capacity utilization rate was 81.44%, with a weekly increase of 1.13% and a monthly increase of 2.22%; The operating rate was 59.09%, with a week on week increase of 0.91% and a month on month decrease of 0.91%; The inventory in the factory was 714,300 tons, an increase of 83,600 tons compared to the same period last month.

Demand: The extreme weather continued this month, with rainstorm coming one after another in the south, while the northeast of North China was facing high temperature and dry heat, which affected local regional demand and transportation.

In terms of exports, China's seamless tube exports in May were 551,400 tons, an increase of 11.6% month on month and 28.17% year-on-year; From January to May, China exported a total of 2.4606 million tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year increase of 13.65%. In May, China imported 7,800 tons of seamless tubes, a month on month increase of 11.43% and a year-on-year decrease of 17.89%; From January to May, China imported a total of 38,700 tons of seamless tubes, a year-on-year decrease of 22.44%. In May, China's net export of seamless tubes was 543,600 tons, an increase of 11.6% month on month and 28.94% year-on-year. From January to May, China's cumulative net export of seamless tubes was 2.4219 million tons, an increase of 14.51% year-on-year.

Market outlook

In summary, although the export data of seamless tubes continued to show a positive trend and the fundamentals remained resilient, the loosening of cost support and off-season demand were putting pressure on the market. Overall, in the short term, seamless tube prices may mainly operate to be weaker.

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