As the year-end approaching, various operations have gradually come to an end, and the overall atmosphere of anticipation for the holiday is becoming increasingly strong. Current market inquiries and purchases are relatively weak, and actual transactions are relatively sluggish. Meanwhile, news of steel mills reducing or halting production in some regions continues to negatively impact the market for raw materials such as ferrosilicon. However, recent electricity price settlements in some regions have significantly increased production costs compared to last month, leading to a lack of enthusiasm among some industry players to further lower prices and move inventory. They intend to adopt a wait-and-see approach and make plans after the holiday. According to data from the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of February 13th, the market price of ferrosilicon (grade: FeSi75～B; particle size/mm: natural lumps) in Ningxia was 5,300-5,400 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,312 RMB/ton, remaining unchanged.
Influencing factors
Raw Material Semi-coke Market: This week, semi-coke prices remained weak and stable. Following the implementation of electricity price policies, there have been no new disruptions, and cost support remains stable. As of the 13th, the price of medium-grade semi-coke in Shenmu market was 760-780 RMB/ton, small-grade semi-coke was 735-750 RMB/ton, and coke powder was 460-520 RMB/ton; in Fugu market, medium-grade semi-coke was 750-800 RMB/ton, small-grade semi-coke was 735-860 RMB/ton, and coke powder was 480-600 RMB/ton; in Zhongwei market, the mainstream price of coke powder was 560 RMB/ton; and in Shizuishan market, mixed semi-coke was 530 RMB/ton. Overall, the semi-coke market is expected to remain stable in the short term. Future market developments will require continued monitoring of raw material price trends and supply and demand.
On the supply side, manufacturers in major producing areas have gradually entered holiday season, with a slight decrease in operating rates. Output remains at a relatively low level compared to the same period last year, and inventory pressure is not significant. Market transactions are sparse, with factories mostly shipping orders placed before the holiday.
On the demand side, downstream steel mills have largely completed their procurement, with only small-scale restocking for immediate needs and no concentrated purchasing activity. Steel mills completed their pre-holiday restocking. Pig iron production is struggling to recover, and finished steel inventories are accumulating during the off-season, putting downward pressure on alloy prices. Traders are generally adopting a wait-and-see approach before the holiday, maintaining light inventory levels and awaiting clearer supply and demand signals after the holiday. With both supply and demand weak before the holiday, the market is mainly in a wait-and-see mode, and the short-term narrow range trading pattern remains unchanged.
Market outlook
In general, the upside and downside potential for ferrosilicon is limited in the short term, with both futures and spot prices expected to remain stable, likely ending the Spring Festival period on a flat note. The supply side remains generally stable in the short term; attention should be paid to the pace of steel mill resumption of operations after the holiday, the start of raw material procurement, and the progress of production resumption in major producing areas.
If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.
