Price trend

Last week, the bidding process for ferrosilicon by some steel mills progressed slowly. Some mills released bidding prices that were slightly higher than the previous month, and there was some anticipation regarding year-end winter stockpiling. The market sentiment had improved slightly, but most producers were not actively lowering prices to move inventory, and overall, a wait-and-see attitude prevailed. According to data from the SunSirs commodity price analysis system, as of January 23rd, the market price for ferrosilicon (grade: FeSi75～B; particle size/mm: natural lump) in the Ningxia region was 5,300-5,450 RMB/ton, with an average market price of 5,298 RMB/ton, a 0.98% increase compared to Monday.

Influencing factors

Raw material semi-coke market:

Last week, the national semi-coke market operated weakly. Downstream mainstream calcium carbide enterprises lowered their semi-coke purchase prices by 15-35 RMB/ton, bringing the price of medium-sized semi-coke to 760 RMB/ton and small-sized semi-coke to 735 RMB/ton, effective from January 24th. As of the 23rd, the price of medium-sized semi-coke in the Shenmu market was reported at 765-790 RMB/ton, small-sized semi-coke at 730-750 RMB/ton, and coke fines at 480-520 RMB/ton; in the Fugu market, medium-sized semi-coke was reported at 790-850 RMB/ton, small-sized semi-coke at 750-870 RMB/ton, and coke fines at 510-600 RMB/ton; the mainstream price of coke fines in the Zhongwei market was 560 RMB/ton; and mixed semi-coke in the Shizuishan market was 530 RMB/ton. Overall, semi-coke prices temporarily lacked positive support, and were expected to remain stable after the decline. The market outlook depends on downstream inventory levels of semi-coke before the Spring Festival.

Supply and demand situation

On the supply side, ferrosilicon production costs remained relatively stable, and production enthusiasm was moderate. Market sentiment was stable, although there was some pressure on inventory and shipments. Overall production pace remained steady. As of January 22nd, the national operating rate (capacity utilization rate) was 29.09%, a decrease of 0.12% compared to the previous week; the average daily output was 14,065 tons, a decrease of 0.21% compared to the previous week, or a decrease of 30 tons.

In terms of demand, as the off-season deepens, there was limited room for further improvement in the apparent demand for rebar and hot-rolled coils. Subsequently, with the seasonal weakening of demand before the Lunar New Year, the pressure on steel inventory may further accumulate. Short-term demand for ferrosilicon is also not expected to see a significant increase, and is projected to remain relatively stable. As of January 23, the representative large steel mills in southern China were purchasing ferrosilicon at prices ranging from 5,700 to 5,840 RMB/ton. According to customs data, in December 2025, China's ferrosilicon (Si>55%) exports amounted to 31,132.134 tons, a 7.61% increase month-on-month and a 0.85% increase year-on-year. From January to December, China's total ferrosilicon (Si>55%) exports reached 377,399.055 tons, a 6.84% decrease year-on-year.

Market outlook

Overall, the seasonal trend for ferroalloys was quite pronounced, with ferrosilicon prices fluctuating slightly upwards, while overall inventory reduction was slow. In the short term, the ferrosilicon market is expected to trade within a range, and a significant price adjustment is unlikely. Further developments to watch include the pace of steel mill restarts and the impact of raw material restocking on ferrosilicon prices.

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