Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, seamless tube prices experienced a slight decline in January. At the beginning of the month, the price of 20#, 108*4.5 seamless tube was 4,112 RMB/ton, falling to 4,080 RMB/ton by the end of the month, a decrease of 0.78%, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.74%.

Market analysis

Regarding raw materials: In January, the price of steel billets rose slightly. By the end of the month, the price of hot rolled steel billets in Shandong province was 3,550 RMB/ton, a month-on-month increase of 40 RMB/ton; the price in Jiangsu province was also 3,550 RMB/ton, a month-on-month increase of 10 RMB/ton. This was due to the relatively good order situation for steel billet manufacturers during the winter stocking period and their limited production capacity. Coke prices began their first round of increases; at the end of January, some steel mills in Hebei and Tianjin accepted the first round of coke price increases, with wet-quenched coke increasing by 50 RMB/ton, further strengthening the expected cost support.

Supply side: In January, seamless tube suppliers initially planned to increase production before the Chinese New Year, but this was hampered by multiple factors, resulting in limited growth. In northern China, particularly in major seamless tube production areas such as Liaocheng, Cangzhou, and Tianjin, environmental protection warnings due to severe air pollution were issued multiple times in January, leading to temporary production stoppages at some companies and effectively curbing rapid production growth. Despite the limited increase in production, weaker-than-expected downstream orders led to a significant accumulation of inventory at the factories. At the end of January, factory inventory of seamless tubes reached 721,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 52,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 22,900 tons, indicating increasing inventory pressure.

Demand side: At the beginning of the month, market transactions increased somewhat due to a slight price increase and restocking demand ahead of the year-end. However, in the middle of the month, as the Spring Festival approaching and downstream construction sites gradually shutting down, transaction volume continued to decline. The average daily transaction volume for seamless tube companies throughout the month was 13,164 tons, a slight increase of 1.68% compared to the previous month, but the sluggish trend in the latter half of the month was significant.

In terms of exports: In 2025, China's seamless steel tube imports and exports showed a stark contrast of "increased export volume but decreased price, and decreased import volume but increased price." Total exports reached 6.2828 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.79%, setting a new record. Imports in 2025 contracted to 101,500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.98%, however, the average import price remained high, highlighting the continued dependence of the domestic industry on high-end special tube materials. Looking ahead to 2026, with the implementation of the export license management system and changes in the international trade environment, export growth is expected to slow down.

Market Outlook:

In summary, the seamless tube market in January achieved a weak stabilization driven by rising costs. In February, due to the combined effects of strong cost support, low profit margins, reduced supply after the holiday, and expectations of a recovery in demand, seamless tube prices are expected to show a fluctuating upward trend after the holiday.

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