Price trend

According to data from SunSirs, seamless tube prices rose slightly last week. As of the end of the week, the price of 20#, 108*4.5 seamless tube was 4,084 RMB/ton, a 0.1% increase compared to the beginning of the week, but a 2.65% decrease year-on-year.

Market analysis

Last week, prices in the steel billet market experienced a slight decline in some areas. The ex-factory price for 20# hot- rolled steel billets was 3,230-3,310 RMB/ton. Coke producers' initial plans for a price increase were met with resistance, as steel mills showed little willingness to accept the higher prices. As a result, the cost benefits were not fully passed on to the spot market.

Environmental production restrictions in Liaocheng remain in effect, with half of the production lines still shut down for maintenance. Coupled with some tube manufacturers initiating their pre-Chinese New Year shutdown plans, the national supply of seamless tubes continued to shrink. Demand remained constrained by the off-season, with outdoor construction completely halted in the north and many projects in the south entering their final stages. Transactions were mainly driven by sporadic end-user demand, and the atmosphere for winter inventory replenishment remained sluggish.

Market outlook

Overall, the high-level fluctuations in ferrous futures effectively boosted market sentiment, but the lack of a significant recovery in end-user demand during the traditional off-season still constrained the market. However, traders' strong willingness to maintain prices provided some support to the seamless tube market. Coupled with the combined impact of costs, inventory levels, and external risks, seamless tube prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term.

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