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SunSirs: Bearish PTA Prices Fall about 50% Year-on-Year
March 30 2020 09:20:21SunSirs(Linda)

According to SunSirs price monitoring, the domestic PTA spot market price has continued to fall this week. As of March 27, the average market price was 3,326 yuan / ton, down 5.25% from the beginning of the week and down 49.71% year-on-year.

Early next week, the price of the PTA market was affected by crude oil, which increased the market's pessimistic expectations for the chemical market and continued to fall. As the central banks of various countries introduced loose monetary policies to stimulate the market economy, crude oil rebounded, and there was some support on the cost side. At the same time, PTA plant factories successively announced April maintenance plans. The supply side growth rate was expected to slow down, and the decline in PTA was somewhat reduced slow. At present, the domestic PTA plant operating load remains at 69.94%. Multiple PTA plants are expected to restart and the terminal demand is insufficient. Therefore, the market remains cautious about the fundamentals of PTA supply and demand.

Recent changes in domestic PTA installations

The downstream polyester end will be resumed. Among them, Yingxiang, Xinmin, Taicang Minghui and other polyester units are expected to restart next week, and Chongqing Wankai ’s 600,000-ton units are about to be discharged. The restart capacity is estimated at more than 1 million tons. The ester operating rate is around 81%. However, in the recent weaving sector, the start-up and orders have gradually declined. The comprehensive start-up rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom is 61%, which is 7.50% lower than the beginning of the week. Prices also fell sharply. Among them, polyester POY150D / 48F in the mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang reported 5,200-5,600 yuan / ton, polyester DTY150D / 48F low elasticity reported 7,200-7,700 yuan / ton and polyester FDY150D / 96F reported 5,550-5,950 yuan / ton.

The average price change of polyester market in the past 7 days, unit: yuan / ton

Analysts from SunSirs believe that the current demand side is under significant pressure. Due to the decline in the terminal weaving operation rate, the market is still worried about demand, and the enthusiasm for purchasing is weak. At the same time, textile export refunds are gradually increasing. It is expected that the pressure on textile exports in the first half of the year. Obviously, the negative impact of falling terminal demand will suppress the PTA market from the bottom up. In addition, the contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil and the restart of multiple sets of its own supply side, in the short term, are negatively affected by upstream and downstream. It is expected that the short-term PTA spot price will still be mainly adjusted weakly.

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