Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the toluene market fluctuated and fell from July 7 to July 14, 2025. On July 14th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5,560 RMB/ton, and on July 7th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5,660 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.77%. The toluene market fluctuated downward this cycle, and the focus of negotiations had fallen. The recent shipment situation in Shandong region was not good, and the listing price was significantly reduced at the beginning of last week. With the decrease in prices, the enthusiasm for entering the market improved significantly, and refinery shipments rebounded. The demand in the oil blending industry was still acceptable, while others were weak. The downstream consumption situation in East and South China remained lukewarm, with a lack of demand to boost the weak market situation.

Analysis review

Cost side: The international crude oil market mainly fluctuated within the range of this cycle, with frequent fluctuations and limited impact on downstream markets. Market influencing factors returned to the supply and demand side. As of July 11th, the settlement price of the August contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.45 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September was $70.36 per barrel.

Supply side: Sinopec's toluene enterprise was operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of July 14th, East China Company quoted 5,500 RMB/ton, North China Company quoted 5,500 RMB/ton, South China Company quoted 5,650-5,700 RMB/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5,600 RMB/ton.

Demand side: On July 14th, the price of p-xylene at Sinopec Sales Company was temporarily stable, with a execution price of 7,250 RMB/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of facilities such as Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical was stable, and sales were normal. The price remained unchanged compared to July 7th. As of July 11th, the closing prices of the p-xylene market in Asia were $811-813/ton FOB Korea and $836-838/ton CFR China, a decrease of $4/ton from July 4th.

Market outlook

Recently, the trend of crude oil has been fluctuating, with significant fluctuations and insufficient guidance for the market. Market influencing factors have returned to the supply and demand side. The recent performance of the supply side has been relatively stable, with no significant positive factors. The demand side has been relatively rigid in the recent times, while the demand in the oil blending industry was still acceptable, and other aspects were relatively stable. Overall, the performance of supply and demand was relatively weak, and it is expected that the market will experience narrow fluctuations in the short term. The focus will be on the impact of downstream demand changes on the spot market.

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