According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the domestic PTA spot market in May showed a trend of rising first and then falling. As of May 27, the average price of PTA in East China was 4,938 RMB/ton, up 7.73% from the beginning of the month.

In the future, PTA units were concentrated for maintenance in May, and PTA units were restarted in the second half of the month. As of the end of the month, the operating rate of the PTA industry was around 78%. With the repair of the processing fee on the plate, the implementation of the maintenance of the unit in June and July may not be as expected. New production capacity such as Honggang Petrochemical Phase III and Hailun Petrochemical Phase III will be put into production in June-August, and the forward supply is mainly loose.

In the crude oil market, the current settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures is US$60.89/barrel, and the settlement price of the August contract of Brent crude oil futures is US$63.57/barrel. Trump postponed the imposition of tariffs on the EU, but OPEC and its allies are considering another substantial increase in production. Therefore, the oil market is weighing the prospects of easing trade tensions and increasing OPEC+ supply in the short term.

Recently, as the PX benefits have been restored, some domestic and foreign units have increased their loads and the units that were previously overhauled have gradually restarted, such as the 1.6 million tons of Zhongjin Petrochemical and the 4 million tons of Zhejiang Petrochemical units that have restarted ahead of schedule, which has gradually increased the supply of PX. Combined with the gradual realization of production cuts in the downstream polyester link, the marginal weakening of the supply and demand side, and the limited support of crude oil prices, PX is under obvious upward pressure. However, as the downstream PTA load gradually increases, the short-term PX supply and demand side is good, and the current spot market supply is tight, PX is still relatively resistant to declines.

Under the sharp rise in the raw material side, the downstream polyester product losses have expanded, and the terminal mainly digests the raw material inventory after stocking up at a low level. In addition, as China's export rush to the United States is expected to gradually end in late June and the domestic sales off-season is coming, terminal textile companies are cautiously watching and buying mainly for rigid needs, and the polyester market is trading light. The high inventory pressure brought by the high operating rate of nearly 90% will increase. Some polyester factories have begun to reduce production, and it is expected that the reduction in production in the third quarter will be relatively certain.

On the whole, analysts from SunSirs believe that crude oil prices are dominated by geopolitical risks and policy games, and emergencies may lead to increased volatility in oil prices. The increase in supply brought about by the reduction in downstream polyester production and the release of new PTA production capacity will suppress the upward space of PTA prices. It is expected that the PTA market will be under pressure in June.

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