Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall trend of the domestic PTA spot market in June showed a fluctuating upward trend. As of June 29th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 5,084 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.4% from the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, PTA maintenance units were successively restarted, and the supply continued to increase. However, crude oil remained strong, and PTA slightly fell. In the middle of the month, crude oil prices rose significantly, boosting PTA prices. In the late month, crude oil experienced a sharp decline, and the PTA market followed suit.

Analysis review

Looking at the future market, in terms of its own supply, Hengli Petrochemical's 2.2 million ton PTA plant shut down in mid June; Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million ton PTA plant dropped to 50% on June 15th; Fuhai Chuang's 4.5 million ton PTA plant gradually shut down on June 19th. The 2.5 million ton unit of Honggang Petrochemical was put into operation on June 7th and was temporarily increasing its load. The current industry operating rate was around 78%, and there is plans to restart in the future, which will increase supply.

The crude oil market experienced significant fluctuations in oil prices due to the situation in the Middle East. The geopolitical situation significantly eased, and market concerns were alleviated. Therefore, support for oil prices has weakened, but there were still many uncertainties. As of June 26th, the settlement price of international crude oil futures for WTI crude oil futures in the United States in August was $65.24 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in August was $67.73 per barrel.

The downstream polyester industry was experiencing a decline in load, with Yisheng Hainan, Yisheng Dalian, Chongqing Wankai, and some short fiber factories planning to reduce production and undergo maintenance after July. It is expected that the industry's supply will significantly decline. Terminal textiles entered the off-season of consumption, with insufficient order follow-up. In addition, recent fluctuations in raw material prices have led to relatively cautious procurement, maintaining a focus on essential needs procurement.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that the market was still concerned about the fragility of the geopolitical situation, insufficient cost support, and weak supply and demand fundamentals under the traditional consumption off-season. Therefore, the PTA market will mainly consolidate to be weaker in July.

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