Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the focus of the domestic PTA spot market slightly shifted last week (June 9-13). As of June 13, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 4,932 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.99% from the beginning of the month. Geopolitics was heating up, and the sharp rise in crude oil prices was helping to strengthen costs. However, there were expectations of weakening on the supply and demand sides, and there was insufficient support on the demand side, resulting in a lack of market momentum to chase after price increases.

Analysis review

Looking ahead, the progress of the China US economic and trade talks in the crude oil market was smooth, boosting global demand expectations. Combined with the continuation of the traditional fuel consumption peak season in the United States and the instability of the geopolitical situation, it provided certain support for oil prices. But the global economic recovery was still slow, which may curb the rise in oil prices. As of June 12th, the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $68.04 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $69.06 per barrel.

In terms of self supply, mainstream domestic producers restarted their facilities, and Honggang Petrochemical's 2.5 million ton annual production facility was put into operation, resulting in a significant increase in supply and an industry operating rate of around 83%. The peak of PTA plant maintenance had passed, and new production capacity was being tested and put into operation. It is expected that PTA supply will continue to increase within the month.

Meanwhile, the performance of downstream polyester end was not ideal, and the purchasing enthusiasm was not high. The performance of domestic and foreign trade orders at the terminal was scarce, with a small number of orders being mainly sampled in autumn and winter, but there was still uncertainty for subsequent orders. Next week, there is an expectation of an increase in device storage load, and some maintenance devices are planned to restart. The weaving operation rate is still at a low level, and there may be a downward risk in the weaving industry at the end of the month.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that the macro outlook was relatively warm, with crude oil rebounding significantly in the short term. However, the supply of raw material PX had returned, PTA new facilities had been put into operation, and there were plans to restart early-stage maintenance facilities. The seasonal off-season for terminals was approaching, with weak demand performance and expectations of weakened supply and demand. It is expected that PTA prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

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