Price trend
According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the average market price of rapeseed meal on April 1st was 2,978 RMB/ton, and on April 25th, the average market price of rapeseed meal was 3,090 RMB/ton. During this period, the increase was 3.75%, and a decrease of 6.76% compared to March 1st.
Analysis review
From the weekly K-bar chart of SunSirs, it can be seen that the price of rapeseed meal showed a downward trend in March. Among them, prices slightly increased in the first week of March, followed by a major decline, with a maximum decline of 5.9% in the third week. The main factor was the weak supply and demand of rapeseed meal; The soybean meal market was declining, and rapeseed meal was lowered under pressure. The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike had landed, and the macro market had a strong pessimistic atmosphere. Since April, positive news emerged, rapeseed meal prices fluctuated and increased, but there was limited upside potential.
According to data statistics, the global rapeseed production in 2022/23 was 87.161 million tons, while in 2021/2022, the global rapeseed production was 74.02 million tons. Global rapeseed supply has shifted from tight to loose in 2022/2023. Among them, the Canadian rapeseed production in 2022/2023 was 19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.18%. Russia, the European Union, Australia, and Ukraine increased production year-on-year in 2022/2023. In the first quarter of 2023, domestic imports of rapeseed reached 1.66 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 343.14%; In the first quarter of 2023, domestic imports of rapeseed meal reached 205500 tons, an increase of 23.20% year-on-year. From April to May, it is expected that the quantity of imported rapeseed will still be high, with sufficient domestic supply of imported rapeseed. The operating rate of oil plants will remain high, and rapeseed meal output will increase. As of the end of 2014, the inventory of rapeseed meal in coastal oil factories exceeded 50000 tons, which was at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years.
As the temperature rises, aquaculture gradually recovers. The demand for rapeseed meal by feed enterprises may increase, and the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be optimistic; The price difference of soybean and rapeseed meal is at a high level, with obvious advantages in rapeseed meal substitution and improved cost-effectiveness, supporting the price of rapeseed meal.
In terms of soybean meal: According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average market price of soybean meal on April 1st was 3,844 RMB/ton, and on April 25th, the average market price of soybean meal was 4,324 RMB/ton, with an increase of 12.49% during the period. The price of soybean meal has increased significantly, further widening the price gap between soybean and rapeseed meal, and improving the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal. At the beginning of April, most soybean oil factories in China imported soybeans, the inventory was significant reduced. Some soybean oil factories experienced soybean interruption and shutdown, leading to a tightening of soybean meal supply and a surge in prices. As a result, rapeseed meal prices were driven up.
Market outlook
The quantity of imported rapeseed remains abundant from April to May, and the output of rapeseed meal is expected to increase; The weather is warming up and aquaculture is gradually starting; In April, the spot price of soybean meal increased overall, and towards the end of the month, soybeans gradually went through customs and loaded into factories. The supply of soybean meal tended to increase, and the price of soybean meal decreased, dragging down the price of rapeseed meal, which was greatly affected by soybean meal. SunSirs believes that rapeseed meal may fluctuate upwards, but there is limited upside space.
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