According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, in the first quarter, bearish sentiment was dominant, and the rebound in the feed raw material market was weak. The feed index as a whole fell, oscillating and falling by more than 6%. On March 31, the feed raw materials were 988 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.19% from the highest point in the cycle of 1,357 points (2022-11-10), and an increase of 32.26% from the lowest point of 747 points on April 10, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to 2014-03-01 present)
According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there was one product that rose, four products that fell, and zero products that rose or fell on the feed raw material price list in the first quarter of 2024. The main commodities that have risen are: DDGS (1.98%); The main commodities falling include soybean meal (-12.01%), rapeseed meal (-8.47%), and corn (-6.49%).
In the first quarter, the stocking market of terminal feed manufacturers gradually ended, and demand significantly declined. From January to February, the feed raw material market experienced a comprehensive decline, and gradually improved in March. Due to the large decline in the early stage, the rebound in the later stage was weak. Except for the increase in DDGS products, corn, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and wheat all fell, with the overall oscillation and decline in the feed raw material sector being the main trend. Among them, soybean meal led the decline, with a decline of over 12%; Rapeseed meal came second, with a decline of over 8%; Corn and wheat both fell by more than 5%, while DDGS rose alone, with an increase of 1.98%.
In the first quarter, the market for rapeseed meal rebounded weakly, falling by over 8%. In January, imported new season rapeseed gradually arrived at the port, and the operating rate of rapeseed oil manufacturers increased, leading to an increase in rapeseed meal supply. Terminal aquaculture is in the off-season of demand, and the market for rapeseed meal is constantly declining. Entering February, the rapeseed meal market continued to decline, falling for two consecutive months, with a decline of over 11%. After March, the demand for terminal aquatic feed rebounded, and the substitute soybean meal market continued to rise, supported by bullish sentiment. The rapeseed meal market experienced a significant rise, oscillating for more than half a month, with an increase of nearly 8%. At the end of the month, the substitute soybean meal market plummeted, terminal demand declined, and the rapeseed meal market plummeted, with a drop of over 4%.
Agricultural product analysts from SunSirs believe that the main reason for the overall significant decline in feed raw materials in the first quarter is the loose supply of raw materials and poor terminal demand from January to February. After March, the demand for terminal feed has gradually recovered, and the overall feed raw material market has rebounded, with a smaller rebound than the decline, and oscillating decline is the main trend.
In the second quarter, demand side: Aquatic feed aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the rigid demand for terminal feed has increased. In addition, the low inventory of feed factories has led to a gradual rebound in the purchase of feed raw materials. In terms of demand, it is still mainly bullish. Supply side: South American soybeans are gradually being launched, and the import volume of corn and soybeans to Hong Kong is increasing. The pressure on raw material supply is still ongoing. Futures: During the South American soybean harvest season, the US soybeans will enter the planting period, and the external futures market will still be constrained by weather themes, with still room for growth. Long and short intertwined, the feed raw material sector may experience an upward trend in the second quarter, and the upward trend is expected.
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